G'day everyone!
Another year, another Oscar awards season that is sure to be filled with twists and turns, surprises and snubs, upsets and unpredictable escapades! Having recently looked over my 2022 post, I'm honestly surprised at how early I was able to correctly pick some more left-field nominations like BARDO getting a lone cinematography nom, or Everything Everywhere All at Once being the nomination tally leader.
I'm not going to let that inflate my awards ego, but I am excited to write this, and then look at it in a day or so's time to see how right or wrong I was! So without further ado, here are my current thoughts on the upcoming awards race and its contenders!
Like last year, there’s a healthy amount of big blockbusters vying for Oscar attention. Last year we had Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick, and this year we have Oppenheimer and Barbie. Oppenheimer has 88 on Metacritic, 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, and has grossed $934 million and comes from Christopher Nolan, whose films are no strangers at the Academy Awards. Eight of his films have earned a total of 36 Academy Award nominations, with 11 wins, maybe most famously with Heath Ledger's posthumous Best Supporting Actor win for The Dark Knight (2008). He’s personally been nominated once for Best Director (Dunkirk-2017), twice for Best Original Screenplay (Momento-2002; Inception-2010), and twice for Best Picture (Inception-2010; Dunkirk-2017). With Oppenheimer, Nolan has his best shot yet at not only multiple nominations, but numerous wins. On it best day, Oppenheimer could garner a whopping 13 nominations for Best Picture, Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Supporting Actress (Emily Blunt), Adapted Screenplay, Score, Cinematography, Sound, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling. And it is competitive to win at least 8 of those! (especially now with no Dune Part Two to compete with it). Having also swept the Golden Globes winning Picture - Drama, Director, Actor and Score, and winning Picture, Director, Score, Cinematography, Editing, Sound and VFX at the Critics' Choice and its recent 13 nominations at the BAFTAs, its very clear that Oppenheimer is the frontrunner.
Another massive hit, Barbie has 80 on Metacritic, 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and has grossed $1.428 billion! From director Greta Gerwig, who has also been an Academy favourite with her previous films (Lady Bird-2017: 5 nominations and Little Women-2019: 6 nominations, 1 win), Barbie has been the cultural hit of the year. Don't be surprised to see Barbie rack up a nomination list including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Margot Robbie), Best Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Best Supporting Actress (America Ferrera), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Song (or songs!), Best Editing, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design and maybe even Sound, Score and Cinematography. It should be noted that the acting races this year are fierce and stacked, so there's sure to be plenty of snubs and Robbie and Ferrera aren't full locks, vying for the fifth spot in each of their respective categories, but its switch from Original to Adapted shouldn't hurt it (even if it hurts other contenders like The Zone of Interest or All of Us Strangers). Additionally, if "I'm Just Ken" does manage a Best Song nomination, then fingers crossed Gosling performs it live!
It’s been almost 5 years since Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Favourite was nominated for 10 Academy Awards (tying with Roma as the nomination leader for that years ceremony) and went on to win Best Actress for Olivia Colman. Now Poor Things looks set to replicate a similar nomination tally, and potential Best Actress win for Emma Stone, with nominations in Picture, Director, dual supporting noms (this time in Supporting Actor for Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe vs The Favourites' Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone in Supporting Actress), Adapted Screenplay, Score, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling and a dark horse for a VFX nom too. The Ruffalo/Dafoe combo has experienced four different combos at the major precursors: both made Globes, just Ruffalo made Critics' Choice, Dafoe leapfrogged Ruffalo to score at SAG, but neither made BAFTA, so it's anyone's guess what the Oscars will do! The fantasy sci-fi steampunk sexcapade also won Best Picture - Comedy/Musical at the Golden Globes and Best Actress at the Globes and Critics' Choice and received 11 BAFTA nominations, the second most for the ceremony, so expect a sturdy nomination tally.
The legendary Martin Scorsese' premiered his first ever Western, Killers of the Flower Moon at Cannes in May 2023. Since then, its been hailed as one of Scorsese's best with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, 89 on Metacritic and numerous critics groups wins for Best Picture. However, at this stage Killers of the Flower Moon may end up mirroring the fate of Scorsese's previous film, the 2019 gangster epic The Irishman, which ended up going home emptyhanded come Oscar evening from 10 nominations. One of the nominations it failed to even secure come nomination morning was Robert De Niro in Actor despite Al Pacino and Joe Pesci getting Supporting noms, but it would be a huge shock if this time De Niro misses for Supporting Actor for Killers of the Flower Moon having scored nominations at the Globes, Critics' Choice, BAFTAs and SAG. However, Leonardo DiCaprio may follow and miss Actor having missed BAFTA and SAG noms. Then there is Lily Gladstone, whom many expected to sweep Best Actress, especially after her Globe win. But having lost the Critics' Choice to Emma Stone, and being snubbed by BAFTA, Gladstone still looks set for a nom but less win competitive. Outside of acting, expect to see a healthy nomination package of Director, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling.
The final top 5 contender is Alexander Payne's 80s-esque Christmas dramedy The Holdovers, which has emerged as a huge contender, despite its smaller below-the-line nomination potential. Whilst Alexander Payne has a shadow of sexual assault allegations that can't be ignored, Payne is also an Academy darling, bar his last film Downsizing, with his films Election (1 nomination), About Schmidt (2 nominations), Sideways (5 nominations including Best Picture and winning for Best Adapted Screenplay), The Descendants (5 nominations including Best Picture and winning for Best Adapted Screenplay) and Nebraska (6 nominations including Best Picture). The Holdovers is set to get nominations in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Paul Giamatti), Best Supporting Actress (Da'Vine Joy Randolph) and Best Original Screenplay with it competitive/expected to win Actor, Supporting Actress and Screenplay. Additionally, don't be surprised if it also scores nominations for Best Supporting Actor for the young breakout Dominic Sessa, and Best Editing.
Moving outside the top 5, we have Celine Song's directorial debut Past Lives, distributed by A24. With 96% on Rotten Tomatoes, and 94 on Metacritic, the film is one of the highest rated and best reviewed films of 2023, and has swept indie awards whilst also garnering nominations for Best Picture at the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice and PGA. Over the last few years, A24 has been able to secure one film in the Best Picture lineup, and this year is vying for 2 with Past Lives and Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest. Past Lives is most likely to only score one other nomination for Original Screenplay, but could show up in Actress for Greta Lee or less likely Director for Celine Song, or maybe even Original Song for "Quiet Eyes".
Winner of the prestigious Palme d'Or at Cannes last year, Justine Triet's Anatomy of a Fall has managed to maintain it's prestige level, despite not being submitted as France's candidate for International Feature. Having just recently scored 7 BAFTA nominations, the film has 96% on Rotten Tomatoes and 86 on Metacritic, and has swept Foreign Language categories, in addition to a surprise Golden Globes win for Best Original Screenplay. Expect to see the film show up in Picture, Actress (Sandra Hüller), Original Screenplay and ideally Editing. Some are hoping Triet' also makes the Director lineup, and in a just world Milo Machado Graner would be nominated for Supporting Actor.
Next we have Bradley Cooper's Leonard Bernstein biopic Maestro. Cooper was lauded in 2018 for his remake of A Star is Born starring himself and Lady Gaga, and famously was snubbed for Best Director at the Oscars for that year, despite the film garnering 8 nominations and 1 win for Original Song ("Shallow"). Seemingly back with a vengeance, Cooper has increased his directing skill with Maestro, which despite more mixed critical reviews, has managed to perform strongly across the various guilds, as well as at Critics' Choice, the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs scoring 7 nominations including Director for Cooper. In a tight Director race, Cooper still may be on the outside looking in, but Maestro should secure nominations for Picture, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Sound and a likely win for Makeup and Hairstyling, with potential for Costume Design, Production Design and Editing nominations as well.... and maybe Director.
Winner of the Grand Prix, the second most-prestigious award at the Cannes Film Festival, Jonathan Glazer's Holocaust drama The Zone of Interest, is A24's second candidate for a Best Picture nomination this year. A more arthouse contender, and certainly one that is harder to stomach, the film has nonetheless performed well, not only amongst independent awards bodies but with surprise Best Picture nominations at the Golden Globes and even more shockingly PGA. With 9 BAFTA nominations, the film managed to score nods in 9 of the 10 categories it was longlisted in.... however its notable snub was missing Best Picture. However, as the BAFTAs only have 5 slots, and the Oscars have 10, expect to see The Zone of Interest make the cut, especially with such a large voter overlap between the two awards bodies. Expect it to receive nominations in Picture, Director, and International Feature (which it should win with Anatomy of a Fall out of competition due to France not submitting it) with likely nominations in Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Supporting Actress (potential dual nominee Sandra Hüller) and potentially Adapted Screenplay (although Barbie has likely edged it out) and Score (although it is a very minimal one and experimental which isn't usually what gets in, although it made the shortlist so who knows).
Finally, the last top 10 contender is debut director Cord Jefferson's satirical comedy American Fiction. Having won the People's Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival, and with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic, the film has garnered Best Picture nominations at the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice and PGA, with additional wins for Best Adapted Screenplay at the Critics' Choice and a SAG Ensemble nom. Despite being a comedy, which can sometimes struggle to break into the Oscar race, the timely subject manner of American Fiction should see it get nominations for Best Picture, Best Actor (Jeffrey Wright), and Best Adapted Screenplay, with a potential nomination for Best Supporting Actor for Sterling K. Brown and a longshot nomination for Laura Karpman's jazzy score.
Sitting just outside the top 10 is Blitz Bazawule's musical adaptation of The Color Purple, produced by the same team behind the 1985 classic. The original Color Purple scored 11 nominations without a single win, but went on to be adapted into a Tony Award winning Broadway musical in 2005. It is this musical version that Bazawule and co. have sought to adapt, complete with returning stage cast members Fantasia Barrino and Danielle Brooks. Despite strong reviews, the film has struggled to catch on with critics and guilds except SAG where it received an Ensemble nomination, and a mountain of Best Supporting Actress nominations for Danielle Brooks at precursors. Whilst once expected to score nominations in Picture, Actress, dual Supporting Actress noms, Adapted Screenplay, Song, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Costume Design, Production Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling, it is now only expected to be nominated for Supporting Actress, with dark horse potential in Costume Design, despite 5 nominations at the Critics' Choice Awards including Best Picture.
Lastly there is Emerald Fennell's sophomore film Saltburn. The erotic thriller divided critics and audiences, but has found a second wave of support as it streams on Amazon PrimeVideo. Whilst Fennell's first feature Promising Young Woman garnered 5 nominations including Best Picture, Best Director and a win for Best Original Screenplay, Saltburn is very much a dark horse contender, despite its 2 Golden Globe noms, 3 Critics' Choice nominations including Best Picture, and 5 BAFTA noms, including 3 acting nods, but it could also completely goose-egg come Oscar nomination morning. On its best day it could surprise with acting (particularly Rosamund Pike in supporting actress), writing, and tech noms (cinematography, score and production design) but it could also miss all of these. Certainly one to keep an eye on, but a hard one to predict confidently.
So here are my FINAL NOMINATION PREDICTIONS
Best Picture
I'm predicting the PGA 10, which is also 10/12 that received Golden Globe Best Picture nominations. I won’t be shocked if Saltburn or The Color Purple make it in, but will be more shocked at whatever they bump out of the top 10. May December and Air did get in at the Golden Globes but seem unlikely at this point. All of Us Strangers did well at BAFTA but didn't make Picture or Actor, and Ava DuVernay's Origin seems to be having a late 'To Leslie'-style surge but I don't think it will be enough to break in.
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Holdovers
5. Poor Things
6. Past Lives
7. American Fiction
8. Maestro
9. Anatomy of a Fall
10. The Zone of Interest
11. Saltburn
12. The Color Purple
13. Origin
14. May December
15. All of Us Strangers
16. Air
Best Director
Nolan is the clear frontrunner and eventual winner. Despite missing BAFTA, I'm still confident predicting Martin Scorsese. With DGA, BAFTA and Critics' Choice, and given how strong The Holdovers is, Payne seems a lock. There also seems now to always be a slot for a Cannes director/International director, and all year I've had that pegged for Jonathan Glazer. Then the fifth spot is super contentious. Both Lanthimos and Gerwig missed BAFTA, but both have DGA. Ultimately, I've gone with Gerwig because she has two prior Best Picture nominees (Lady Bird and Little Women) to Lanthimos' one (The Favourite) and I feel Barbie is just a sliver more popular than Poor Things is (especially given how it will likely triumph in the tech categories). Still keep an eye out for Cooper, Triet or Song to surprise.
1. Christopher Nolan-Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese-Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Alexander Payne-The Holdovers
4. Jonathan Glazer-The Zone of Interest
5. Greta Gerwig-Barbie
6. Yorgos Lanthimos-Poor Things
7. Bradley Cooper-Maestro
8. Justine Triet-Anatomy of a Fall
9. Celine Song-Past Lives
10. Andrew Haigh-All of Us Strangers
Best Actor
Murphy and Giamatti both won at the Globes (Drama and Comedy respectively), and Giamatti then surprised and won the Critics' Choice, leapfrogging Bradley Cooper who was the presumed threat to Murphy. All three have Globe, Critics' Choice, SAG and BAFTA, as does Colman Domingo for Rustin. However, as great and deserving as Domingo is, Rustin isn't a Best Picture play, and the Academy is less likely to nominate an actor from a non-Best Picture player compared to SAG or BAFTA. Whilst Jeffrey Wright missed BAFTA, his film 'American Fiction' is firmly in the Best Picture lineup so him missing at the Oscars would be very unlikely, which is why I have him in fourth. This leaves fifth position to be fought out between Domingo and Leonardo DiCaprio for Killers of the Flower Moon, and again I'm giving the edge to the actor who is in a Best Picture prospective nominee, and Academy favourite with 6 prior nominations. However, DiCaprio could miss, if the love for Domingo is really there, and it would be a much deserved nomination. Andrew Scott missing BAFTA really hurts his chances but I still have him at 6th. Barry Keoghan managed a BAFTA nom and was Oscar nominated last year for The Banshees of Inisherin and the Academy does like giving back-to-back nominations but I really just can't predict how the Academy will respond to Saltburn. I'd be thrilled if Teo Yoo or Zac Efron surprised, and with The Iron Claw seemingly building some momentum, I'd love to see it show up somewhere and if that's Efron count me in!
1. Cillian Murphy-Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti-The Holdovers
3. Bradley Cooper-Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright-American Fiction
5. Leonardo DiCaprio-Killers of the Flower Moon
6. Colman Domingo-Rustin
7. Andrew Scott-All of Us Strangers
8. Barry Keoghan-Saltburn
9. Teo Yoo-Past Lives
10. Zac Efron-The Iron Claw
Best Actress
I have Emma Stone at no. 1 after her Globe and Critics' Choice wins, plus SAG and BAFTA noms. Mulligan and Robbie also have all four noms, and then Gladstone has her Golden Globe win, and Critics' Choice and SAG noms. The fifth spot seems pretty firmly Sandra Hüller (who could end up a double nominee if she gets into Supporting Actress for The Zone of Interest), as Hüller has Globes, Critics' Choice and BAFTA. Some think Robbie will miss, but I'm predicting a Barbiepalooza so I don't see that happening. Greta Lee has Golden Globe and Critics Choice and is in an expected Best Picture nominee, but didn't make SAG or BAFTA where the awards bodies votership overlaps with the Oscars so I'm not expecting her to show up. Annette Bening has Globes and SAG for NYAD, but that feels like a movie that won't show up come Oscar morning (I'm not predicting Foster for supporting actress either). Barrino has Globes and BAFTA, and Portman and Spaeny have Globes, but again I don't think their competitive to break into a very locked top 5.
1. Emma Stone-Poor Things
2. Lily Gladstone-Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Carey Mulligan-Maestro
4. Margot Robbie-Barbie
5. Sandra Hüller-Anatomy of a Fall
6. Greta Lee-Past Lives
7. Annette Bening-NYAD
8. Fantasia Barrino-The Color Purple
9. Natalie Portman-May December
10. Cailee Spaeny-Priscilla
Best Supporting Actor
Downey Jr. seems set to sweep having already won the Globe and Critics' Choice, and with SAG and BAFTA noms. Gosling and De Niro also have nominations at all four major precursors. Then there is the 'Poor Things' predicament - do both Ruffalo and Dafoe make it? Just Ruffalo? Just Dafoe? Neither? I'm opting for just Ruffalo based mostly on just a gut feeling. And then in that fifth position, I've gone out on a limb and predicted Dominic Sessa. I just feel that The Holdovers buzz has built to such a point that with Giamatti and Randolph likely winning their awards plus the film win competitive for Original Screenplay that Sessa can coattail that into a debut acting nomination, plus he has a BAFTA nom to back him up as well. But I wouldn't be shocked to see Dafoe or Sterling K. Brown who has SAG and Critics' Choice noms. At one stage it seemed like Charles Melton was a lock for his first ever nom for his fantastic performance in May December, but the film seems to have hit more with critics than the industry and with no SAG or BAFTA nom its hard to predict him.
1. Robert Downey Jr.-Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling-Barbie
3. Robert De Niro-Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Mark Ruffalo-Poor Things
5. Dominic Sessa-The Holdovers
6. Willem Dafoe-Poor Things
7. Charles Melton-May December
8. Sterling K. Brown-American Fiction
9. Paul Mescal-All of Us Strangers
10. Jacob Elordi-Saltburn
Best Supporting Actress
Da'Vine Joy Randolph has this award locked. She won the Globe and Critics' Choice and I can't see her losing SAG, and BAFTA loved The Holdovers so she should be safe there as well. Brooks and Blunt have also received all four precursor noms. And then the fourth and fifth spots are insanely hard to pick and I don't know anyone who is confident. I've gone for Academy favourite Penélope Cruz for Ferrari. Cruz managed a Best Actress nomination with zero precursors in 2021 for Parallel Mothers, but she currently has a SAG nom for Ferrari and that bodes well for her. Jodie Foster also has SAG, plus Golden Globes and Critics' Choice, but I just don't feel she gets in here. Sandra Hüller has dual BAFTA noms and I honestly think it’s very likely that repeats at the Oscars. Rosamund Pike has Globes and BAFTA and if they love Saltburn, her nomination seems the most likely possibility. I want Julianne Moore to be nominated so badly as she is my personal winner for 2023, and she does have Globe and Critics' Choice, but again the lack of voter overlap, and the underperformance of May December at the BAFTAs and SAG doesn't bode well for her chances. America Ferrera has a Critics' Choice nom, and gave a great speech at the Critics' Choice which was held during Academy voting, but she missed SAG, so even though the Barbiepalooza is coming, I don't know if Ferrera benefits. Lastly Claire Foy made it into BAFTA, certainly as a jury pick, however if the Academy does want to acknowledge All of Us Strangers, nominating Foy is one way they could do that. I'd also love to see Rachel McAdams show up for Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret., as she got so many critics nominations but failed to get any major precursors. Same with Taraji P. Henson, no precursors at all, but she is fantastic in The Color Purple but that is a huge longshot.
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers
2. Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple
3. Emily Blunt-Oppenheimer
4. Penélope Cruz-Ferrari
5. Sandra Hüller-The Zone of Interest
6. Jodie Foster-NYAD
7. Rosamund Pike-Saltburn
8. Julianne Moore-May December
9. America Ferrera-Barbie
10. Claire Foy-All of Us Strangers
Best Original Screenplay
With the Academy (rightfully) deeming Barbie as an adapted screenplay, despite it being campaigned in original, the perceived frontrunner here has now swapped categories. This leaves original screenplay a tight race between Anatomy of a Fall which won the Golden Globe in a surprise but welcome upset, versus The Holdovers which is positioning itself as a a multi-award winner come Oscar night. Both will be competing with Barbie at BAFTA, but if one of them beats it there, then that'll be the likely Oscar winner. Outside of those two, Past Lives has Globes, Critics' Choice and BAFTA and is firmly in that third spot. Maestro has BAFTA and as an expected Best Picture nominee will likely be nominated here, even if its screenplay is the weakest part of the film according to many. Then in that fifth spot, I have May December as this feels like the one place it's most likely to show up on Oscar morning. However, Air did get a Critics' Choice nomination and could be a lone nominee here instead. I'm also watching out for Saltburn.
1. Anatomy of a Fall
2. The Holdovers
3. Past Lives
4. Maestro
5. May December
6. Saltburn
7. Air
8. The Iron Claw
9. Asteroid City
10. Dream Scenario
Best Adapted Screenplay
Barbie is the presumed frontrunner, even as it takes home Original Screenplay statuettes at other awards shows. American Fiction won the Critics' Choice and received a BAFTA nom. Both Oppenheimer and Poor Things have Globes, Critics' Choice and BAFTA, and whilst Killers of the Flower Moon missed BAFTA in a surprise snub, I'm still confident to predict it in that fifth spot. Would love to see All of Us Strangers or The Zone of Interest, which both have BAFTA noms, and a Critics' Choice nom for the former, but can't see anything in that top 5 missing and being snubbed.
1. Barbie
2. American Fiction
3. Poor Things
4. Oppenheimer
5. Killers of the Flower Moon
6. All of Us Strangers
7. The Zone of Interest
8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
9. Origin
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse for a long time seemed like it may even garner a Best Picture nomination. Whilst this possibility has faded, its frontrunner status for the Animated Feature Oscar has never really been in doubt, even when Hayao Miyazaki's The Boy and the Heron beat it at the Golden Globes. Both films have all 4 precursors (Globes, Critics' Choice, BAFTA and Annie Awards). PIXAR's Elemental missed the Annie Awards, but did make Globes, Critics' Choice and BAFTA and the Oscars rarely snubs original films from PIXAR. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and Nimona were well received by critics and have done well at precursors, but could also be sadly snubbed. The Academy does love Aardman, and Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget has both Netflix and a recent BAFTA nom behind it. The Academy could also go international nominating Suzume or Robot Dreams. Or default to American productions like Disney's Wish or Illumination/Nintendo's The Super Mario Bros. Movie which were both nominated at the Golden Globes.
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. The Boy and the Heron
3. Elemental
4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
5. Nimona
6. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
7. Robot Dreams
8. Suzume
9. Wish
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Score
The top 4 seems locked as Göransson, Pemberton, Robertson and Fendrix have all three precursors (with Göransson picking up two wins at the Globes and Critics' Choice). I'm going out on a limb and picking John Williams for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. Despite no precursor noms... He's JOHN freaking WILLIAMS, but he did miss for Kingdom of the Crystal Skull in 2008... but he was also nominated for The Rise of Skywalker in 2019 so...
Mica Levi making the shortlist shows they at least like the score, but its very minimal and I'm not sure it will ultimately get nominated. Joe Hisaishi has never been nominated but the Globes nominated him for The Boy and the Heron and it would be a worthy nomination. Thomas Newman is an Academy favourite, and despite no precursor noms for his Elemental score, that hasn’t stopped him before (he got a nomination for Passengers in 2016 from no precursors). Another Academy favourite is Michael Giacchino, who was still shockingly snubbed last year for The Batman, but has received a Critics' Choice nom for Society of the Snow. Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt could get in for Barbie if the Academy does really love the film. Anthony Willis got a BAFTA nomination for Saltburn and again we have no clue how the Academy will react to the film, but they could follow BAFTA's lead and nominate him. That fifth spot really is up for grabs... (and I could see Poor Things missing too.)
1. Ludwig Göransson-Oppenheimer
2. Daniel Pemberton-Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
3. Robbie Robertson-Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Jerskin Fendrix-Poor Things
5. John Williams-Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
6. Mica Levi-The Zone of Interest
7. Joe Hisaishi-The Boy and the Heron
8. Thomas Newman-Elemental
9. Michael Giacchino-Society of the Snow
10. Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt-Barbie
11. Anthony Willis-Saltburn
12. Laura Karpman-American Fiction
13. Jon Batiste-American Symphony
14. Kris Bowers-The Color Purple
15. Mark Orton-The Holdovers
Best Song
This is Barbie's award to win. But also their's to lose. Because "What Was I Made For?" won the Golden Globe, but "I'm Just Ken" won the Critics' Choice. Either way both are sure to be nominated, and due to Academy rules only 2 songs per film can be nominated, meaning that Globe and Critics' Choice nom "Dance The Night" will very likely miss. Lenny Kravitz' song "Road to Freedom" from Rustin also has Critics' Choice and Globe noms, and feels very safe to predict here. Then there is the perennial 'Diane Warren' slot because the rule is: "if Diane Warren has a song in a movie, and it makes the shortlist, it gets nominated!" which means that "The Fire Inside" from Flamin' Hot will also likely get in. Then the fifth slot is a little more flexible after expected nominees like "Peaches" from The Super Mario Bros. Movie or "A World of Your Own" from Wonka or "This Wish" from Wish didn't make the shortlist. I've picked "It Never Went Away" from American Symphony, as the Academy often nominates songs from documentaries, and American Symphony made the documentary and score shortlists demonstrating broad support for the film. Would not be shocked if The Color Purple manages a song nom, or if something else surprises here but it's hard to call what.
1. I’m Just Ken-Barbie
2. What Was I Made For?-Barbie
3. Road to Freedom-Rustin
4. The Fire Inside-Flamin’ Hot
5. It Never Went Away-American Symphony
6. Quiet Eyes-Past Lives
7. High Life-Flora & Son
8. Dance The Night-Barbie
9. Keep It Movin’-The Color Purple
10. Can’t Catch Me Now-The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes
11. Am I Dreaming-Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
12. Superpower (I)-The Color Purple
13. Meet In the Middle-Flora & Son
14. Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)-Killers of the Flower Moon
15. Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)-Asteroid City
Best Cinematography
A pretty clear top 4 has emerged of Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things and Maestro, with all four getting Critics' Choice, BAFTA, American Society of Cinematographers and British Society of Cinematographers. However, Critics' Choice and BSC went for Saltburn, BAFTA went for The Zone of Interest and ASC went for El Conde. I've picked The Zone of Interest because its in Best Picture and will likely also have other nominations. However, Barbie could also surprise here as it was shot by Rodrigo Prieto who also shot Killers of the Flower Moon and he could become a dual nominee.
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Poor Things
4. Maestro
5. The Zone of Interest
6. Saltburn
7. El Conde
8. Barbie
9. The Creator
10. Society of the Snow
Best Editing
A pretty clear top 3 here as Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon and Poor Things all have Critics' Choice and BAFTA. Barbie, Air and Maestro all have Critics' Choice, and Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest have BAFTA. I've opted for one from Critics' Choice with Barbie, and one from BAFTA with Anatomy of a Fall, but could easily see Maestro or even The Holdovers nominated without any precursors.
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Poor Things
4. Barbie
5. Anatomy of a Fall
6. Maestro
7. The Zone of Interest
8. Air
9. The Holdovers
10. The Killer
Best Sound
Again a strong consensus has formed around the top 2 as Oppenheimer and Ferrari both have BAFTA and Cinema Audio Society (CAS). Maestro also has both, but I've got it slightly lower because its sound work is less in-line with what the Academy tends to nominate since the sound categories merged and they seem to now favour sound editing over sound mixing. Killers of the Flower Moon got CAS and The Zone of Interest got BAFTA, and the fact both made the Sound shortlist signals strength for both films. Would also not be shocked if Barbie gets in because it made CAS and has some strong sound work, but would also love to see Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One carry its surprise BAFTA nom across to an Oscar nom (especially as the franchise has never been nominated at the Academy Awards!)
1. Oppenheimer
2. Ferrari
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Zone of Interest
5. Maestro
6. Barbie
7. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
8. Napoleon
9. The Killer
10. The Creator
Best Visual Effects
With no Oppenheimer on the shortlist, the winner is still up in the air, but The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One, and Poor Things all have Critics' Choice and BAFTA, and again I would love to see the Mission: Impossible franchise Oscar nominated. I actually have Poor Things missing VFX however, in favour of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse which did exceptionally well at the VES, and was Critics' Choice nominated and is one of few animated films ever shortlisted for VFX. And I've also gone out on a limb and predicted Godzilla Minus One, which had a shoestring VFX budget and a tiny team and delivered immensely impressive results, which apparently were rapturously received at the VFX bake-off. However, I also wouldn't be surprised to see both films miss in favour of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny which did well at VES, and the previously mentioned Poor Things. Napoleon and Society of the Snow also have impressive visuals, and Society of the Snow could show up in other techs.
1. The Creator
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
4. Godzilla Minus One
5. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
6. Poor Things
7. Napoleon
8. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
9. Society of the Snow
10. Rebel Moon - Part One: A Child of Fire
Best Production Design
Barbie versus Poor Things: Round One - Production Design: in both bouts I'm giving Barbie the edge, but both will easily be nominated. Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon are also safe bets, and all four have Critics' Choice and BAFTA. Which again leaves a competitive fifth slot. BAFTA went for The Zone of Interest, whereas Critics' Choice went for Saltburn and Wes Anderson's Asteroid City (Critics' Choice has 6 noms per category). The snubbing of Anderson's previous film The French Dispatch seemingly doesn't bode well for Asteroid City, which has barely made a dent in this years awards landscape, and yet Anderson's The Grand Budapest Hotel won the award in 2014. I'm giving the edge to The Zone of Interest, but wouldn't be shocked to see Saltburn, or something else like Napoleon, The Color Purple or Maestro show up here. Sadly Wonka couldn't turn its BAFTA longlist mention into a Production Design nom so an Oscar nom seems unlikely.
1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. The Zone of Interest
6. Saltburn
7. Asteroid City
8. Napoleon
9. Maestro
10. Wonka
Best Costume Design
Barbie versus Poor Things: Round Two - Costume Design: again giving the edge to Barbie, and again Killers of the Flower Moon and Oppenheimer are also firmly in. However, Oppenheimer only has BAFTA and Costume Designers Guild so I have it at fifth. In fourth, I have Napoleon which does have both Critics' Choice and BAFTA and was nominated at the CDG as well. The Color Purple missed CDG in a shock snub, but did make Critics' Choice and this feels like the most likely place the film could still show up but I'm not hopeful. Wonka also missed CDG but made Critics' Choice but also missed BAFTA so doesn't seem likely. Maestro made CDG and the costumes are by Oscar favourite Mark Bridges who could edge out Oppenheimer for that fifth spot. Otherwise other Oscar favourites like Trish Summerville (Mank) and Colleen Atwood (12 nominations; 4 wins), could surprise for The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes and The Little Mermaid respectively.
1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Napoleon
5. Oppenheimer
6. The Color Purple
7. Wonka
8. Maestro
9. The Little Mermaid
10. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes
Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
This seems like Maestro's award, although it did lose at the Critics' Choice to Barbie which didn't make the Oscar shortlist nor the BAFTA noms. Maestro, Oppenheimer and Poor Things all have BAFTA and Critics' Choice, with Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon having BAFTA noms. I'm confident with the top 4, but could see Napoleon missing for the impressive prosthetic work in Golda, Society of the Snow or The Last Voyage of the Demeter.
1. Maestro
2. Poor Things
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Napoleon
6. Golda
7. Society of the Snow
8. The Last Voyage of the Demeter
9. Beau Is Afraid
10. Ferrari
Best International Feature
With Anatomy of a Fall unable to compete here, The Zone of Interest is the clear frontrunner. Spain's Society of the Snow has all three precursors: Golden Globes; Critics' Choice; & BAFTA, as well as 3 tech shortlist mentions for score, VFX and makeup. Ukraine's 20 Days in Mariupol made the BAFTA International nominations, and is win competitive for Documentary. France's The Taste of Things which they submitted over Anatomy of a Fall has Critics' Choice but missed BAFTA and the Golden Globes, whilst Finland's Fallen Leaves has a Golden Globe nom (plus an Actress nom), but missed Critics' Choice and the BAFTA. Still both films feel likely to get the Oscar nom. Watch out for Japan's Perfect Days which was Critics' Choice nominated and Italy's Io Capitano which made the Golden Globes. The Academy also shortlisted Tunisia's Four Daughters in documentary so it could be dual nominated, as could Morocco's The Mother of All Lies, also shortlisted for documentary and which won the Best Film award at the Sydney Film Festival. Germany also has a strong track record in this category and The Teacher's Lounge could be nominated, or the Academy could surprise us again and pick Bhutan's The Monk and the Gun which is from the same director as the Oscar nominated Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom which was surprise nominated in 2021. Mexico's Totem could also be a surprise dark horse.
1. The Zone of Interest (UK)
2. Society of the Snow (Spain)
3. 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
4. The Taste of Things (France)
5. Fallen Leaves (Finland)
6. Perfect Days (Japan)
7. The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)
8. Four Daughters (Tunisia)
9. Totem (Mexico)
10. Io Capitano (Italy)
11. The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)
12. The Promised Land (Denmark)
13. Godland (Iceland)
14. The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)
15. Amerikatsi (Armenia)
Best Documentary Feature
Best Documentary at the Oscars is always full of snubs and surprises. It always seems like a clear consensus forms around the top 5 documentaries, and the Oscars will nominated 2-3 and then pick 2 totally unexpected noms. However, I'm boldly predicting that 4 of the frontrunners will make the Oscar lineup but also do so with a healthy amount of fear and anxiety. They could totally snub my 1-4 picks and nominate 5-9 instead! 20 Days in Mariupol, Beyond Utopia and American Symphony have Critics' Choice, BAFTA and PGA noms, and STILL: A Michael J. Fox Movie won Critics' Choice and also has BAFTA and Cinema Eye Honors. Four Daughters also made the International shortlist as Tunisia's submission and won Best Writing at the IDA Documentary Awards and was nominated at Cinema Eye. Bobi Wine: The People's President won the IDA Award for Best Documentary, where Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project and Apolonia, Apolonia were also nominated. The IDA and Oscar overlap has historically been worth noting, so wouldn't be surprised if they get in over more populist picks. 32 Sounds won the Cinema Eye Award for Best Documentary, where 20 Days in Mariupol, STILL: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters and Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project were also nominated, and Stamped from the Beginning was nominated at Critics Choice so it really could be anyone's guess.
1. 20 Days in Mariupol
2. Beyond Utopia
3. American Symphony
4. STILL: A Michael J. Fox Movie
5. Four Daughters
6. The Eternal Memory
7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
8. Apolonia, Apolonia
9. Bobi Wine: The People’s President
10. Stamped from the Beginning
11. 32 Sounds
12. To Kill a Tiger
13. Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy
14. In the Rearview
15. A Still Small Voice
Best Documentary Short
All three short categories are always a complete guess in the dark for me. I vaguely research and just pick from what others are predicting to distil my own noms. I've tried to pick doco shorts that are easily watchable on streaming or covering relevant political topics. Not much thought past that.
1. The Last Repair Shop
2. The ABCs of Book Banning
3. Last Song from Kabul
4. Camp Courage
5. Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó
6. Deciding Vote
7. The Barber of Little Rock
8. Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games
9. Bear
10. If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis
11. Between Earth and Sky
12. Island in Between
13. Wings of Dust
14. Oasis
15. How We Get Free
Best Live Action Short
Again guessing here, but I've tried to balance shorts with names behind them like Wes Anderson, Alfonso Cuaron, Ben Whishaw and David Oyelowo with smaller lesser known shorts, but I really have no idea.
1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
2. Strange Way of Life
3. The After
4. The Shepherd
5. Red, White and Blue
6. Invincible
7. Invisible Border
8. Good Boy
9. An Avocado Pit
10. Yellow
11. The Anne Frank Gift Shop
12. Knight of Fortune
13. Bienvenidos a Los Angeles
14. The One Note Man
15. Dead Cat
Best Animated Short
Totally just guessing here as well, and have only seen Once Upon a Studio (multiple times and yes I cry everytime) but again tried to balance known studios and student films.
1. Once Upon a Studio
2. Letter to a Pig
3. WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
4. Pete
5. Eeva
6. Ninety-Five Senses
7. Humo
8. Boom
9. A Kind of Testament
10. Pachyderme
11. 27
12. I’m Hip
13. Our Uniform
14. Koerkorter
15. Wild Summon
and those are my predictions! Can't wait to see if I'm very right or brutally wrong!
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