Introducing the 2022 Oscars Race: The Contenders in the Post-Festival Landscape

Well here we are again. Another year, another awards season. The Fall Festivals: Toronto, Telluride & Venice, have taken place and New York is coming up. Across these festivals, the bulk of this year's awards hopefuls have premiered, and there's been shocks and surprises that have left us with a very exciting awards landscape as we head into the beginning of this years awards race. Some big names have had less-than-stellar reactions which has opened the way for smaller films to potentially squeeze in. 

The Underperformers:

Alejandro G. Iñárritu's follow up to his back to back wins for Birdman (2014)/The Revenant (2015), BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths received very underwhelming reviews and currently has an aggregate score of 51 on Metacritic, and 55% on Rotten Tomatoes. Initially thought to be Netflix's leading awards prospect, the festival reviews have led many to write it off as dead on arrival. Criticised by many as overly indulgent and self-gratifying, the presumed international feature frontrunner and nominee in director, actor, and original screenplay, seems now only to be a potential nominee in cinematography and maybe squeeze into international feature and potentially production design.

Florian Zeller's follow-up to his Oscar winning debut, The Father (2020), was also met with mixed reviews. With a 60 on Metacritic and 52% on Rotten Tomatoes, the director/writer's latest is another adaptation of one of his plays, The Son. Starring Hugh Jackman, Laura Dern, Vanessa Kirby, Anthony Hopkins and newcomer Zen McGrath, his sophomore effort was met with more criticism and accusations of emotional manipulation, poor performances and misrepresentation of mental health. These comments came as a surprise to many seeing as The Father was praised for its balanced emotion, incredible performances, and delicate portrayal of dementia. A presumed frontrunner in Actor and Adapted Screenplay, it seems that Jackman may stand as the film's sole nominee, thanks in part to a less crowded Best Actor race opening up nomination slots. 

Sam Mendes's follow-up to his awards darling 1917, has 58 on Metacritic and 50% on Rotten Tomatoes. Whilst praise was given to Olivia Colman, the films cinematography courtesy of Roger Deakins, and the Reznor & Ross score, the film has been criticised for its story and overall construction. It's possible that it may still appeal to Academy voters given its a film celebrating cinema, and is likely to still garner a handful of nominations. 

Peter Farrelly’s follow-up to his Best Picture winner Green Book (2018), The Greatest Beer Run Ever has been met with weaker reviews with many critiquing the film for its shallow script and glib approach. Having seen the film, it’s pretty much what you’d expect from the guy who directed Dumb and Dumber, and Green Book, and seems unlikely to repeat his previous films awards success, unless Apple really pushes it in Adapted screenplay. 

Darren Aronofsky's The Whale currently is at 70% on Rotten Tomatoes and 64 on Metacritic but has a 4.0 on Letterboxd. Whilst the film itself has its critics, Brendan Fraser has been unanimously praised and is seen by many as the frontrunner to win Best Actor. It's likely the film will also be nominated for make-up, which is a strong combo that benefited recent Best Actress nominee Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Add to that a possible nomination for either Hong Chau or Sadie Sink in supporting actress, and the film could overcome lesser reviews to stay in the conversation. 

Noah Baumbach's White Noise currently sits 68 on Metacritic but a stellar 91% on Rotten Tomatoes, and given Netflix doesn't have a clear frontrunner for their campaign, it's possible White Noise gets more of a push. Adam Driver received strong praise for his performance, and in a pretty barren adapted screenplay field, Baumbach could garner a nomination there. 

Lastly, there's the increasingly controversial Blonde from director Andrew Dominik and starring Ana de Armas. Whilst de Armas has been praised for her committed portrayal, the exploitative nature of the film, and Dominik's later dismissive comments in interviews have left many critical of the film. The film currently has 50% on Rotten Tomatoes, 49 on Metacritic, and 2.5 on Letterboxd, demonstrating its strong polarised reaction with many either loving it or hating it, with very few in between. Given the strength of the Best Actress race, it doesn't seem likely that de Armas will break in, and and other tech categories also seem unlikely. 

The Contenders:

One director who's follow-up to Oscar acclaim hasn't disappointed is the legendary Steven Spielberg, who's followed his Oscar winning adaptation of West Side Story with a personal semi-autobiographical account of his early life. The Fabelmans has a strong 84 on Metacritic and 95% on Rotten Tomatoes. Pair that with it winning the TIFF People's Choice Award, and it stands firmly as the frontrunner in Picture and a strong contender across the board. Whilst some suspect the recent category move of Michelle Williams from supporting actress to lead may have lost the film a guaranteed statue, there's still plenty of categories where the film will prove to be competitive. 

If The Fabelmans is the traditional Oscar bait film like Belfast or Green Book, then Everything Everywhere All At Once is the alternative indie dark horse like Parasite. Beloved by Film Twitter and with a 4.5 on Letterboxd, EEAAO has the genuine potential to break into categories above and below the line. Whether it be the long overdue Michelle Yeoh in actress, the triumphant return of Ke Huy Quan in supporting actor, the possibility of Stephanie Hsu in supporting actress, the likely win in original screenplay, the possible win in editing, and potential for nominations in sound, VFX, costumes, production design, makeup and even song, Everything Everywhere All At Once could well be the nominee tally frontrunner, and this may well translate into numerous wins as well.

Women Talking has a strong 80 on Metacritic and has garnered many comparisons to last year's The Power of the Dog (2021), from it being from a female director, to its more mature subject matter. Whilst some assumed it may be too serious to have broad appeal, this seems to not be the case given its runner-up placing for TIFF People's Choice. Additionally, the underperformance of The Son, leaves Women Talking as the frontrunner for Adapted Screenplay, and with Michelle Williams being campaigned lead for The Fabelmans, Women Talking's ensemble looks likely to garner a potential double nomination for Clare Foy and Jessie Buckley, and a possible win in Best Supporting Actress. 

In contrast to the Oscar bait and indie darlings, there is Top Gun: Maverick. The global box office smash hit is also one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year. Everyone seems to love the legacyquel (legacy sequel) and whilst the Academy isn't always known to embrace mainstream blockbusters, Top Gun: Maverick may well be able to break in. It'll most certainly be a tech player with expected nominations in Editing, Sound, VFX, Song and maybe cinematography and score. 

Another successful follow-up is Martin McDonagh's The Banshees of Inisherin which has a stellar 90 on Metacritic. The directors last film Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri (2017) won 2 out of its 7 nominations, narrowly missing out on winning Original Screenplay and Picture. Many have praised Banshees as being McDonagh's best, and no matter whether it is submitted as Original or Adapted for screenplay, it'll be the frontrunner to win (the film is based on an unpublished play written by McDonagh and thus could be classified as adapted, although its currently expected to be campaigned as original). Colin Farrell has received career-best reviews, and is having a fantastic year and seems set for his first Oscar nomination, whilst Brendan Gleeson is Ke Huy Quan's main competitor in Supporting Actor and Kerry Condon is getting strong praise for Supporting Actress. 

Then there is TÁR which has 91 on Metacritic and is director Todd Field's first film since Little Children in 2006. Unlike other directors who's long awaited returns have failed to deliver, Field seems primed to make a big impact in director, screenplay and picture. Cate Blanchett is confidently in the race to win her third Oscar, and whilst some have compared it to last year's Spencer, it seems the critical tide is firmly in favour of TÁR. 

The last strong contender is Netflix's most likely nominee, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. With an 81 on Metacritic, the Knives Out sequel premiered at TIFF to rave reviews, with some praising it as better than the original. With the right campaign, the sequel looks set to break into acting and tech categories that the original was unable to crack which could also equal a Best Picture nomination. 

It really seems like the pressing question of this awards season is how many big blockbusters or popular films can crack Best Picture, and one of the most interesting cases is Baz Luhrmann's Elvis. A commercial hit, the film was met with predominately positive critical reviews, but not unanimous acclaim. As such, the film isn't being considered a lock for Best Picture, but Austin Butler seems in for Best Actor, and the film should show up in costumes and makeup, and maybe production, sound and editing. Medium reviews didn't stop Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) from cracking the Best Picture lineup, and it also garnered a similar package of Actor, Editing and Sound, and made BAFTA for costumes and makeup as well, so a case can definitely be made for Elvis to similarly break through. 

When it comes to foreign language frontrunners, Germany's All Quiet on the Western Front has a 78 Metacritic and is one of Netflix's key films in their awards slate. The original adaptation of the famous anti-war novel won Best Picture in 1930! This latest edition, is the first German-language adaptation and given the Academy's love of war movies, it could easily break through into tech categories like cinematography, sound and production design, but also given the directors branch penchant for nominating international directors, and the thin field of nominees in adapted screenplay, the film could break into above-the-line categories and even make Best Picture. 

Speaking of international directors, there's Ruben Östlund's English-language debut and Cannes Palme d'Or winning Triangle of Sadness, which NEON has picked up for distribution. Having seen the film at the Sydney Film Festival, I loved it, and found my audience responded electrically to the raucous satire. It remains to be seen how well voting bodies will respond, but if it can hit major precursors, then there's a strong chance the film lands in the Best Picture lineup. 

Then there's the recently released The Woman King, which has performed well at the box office and been met with strong reviews. There's a lot of chatter around the film, both positive and negative, around the history depicted, but the film's crafts and performances have been singled out for praise. If it can make it into other categories like lead actress for Viola Davis or supporting actress for Thuso Mbedu it could also make it into Best Picture. The box office success should also help.

Lastly, there’s Till which just premiered at NYFF. The biopic is about the mother of Emmett Till who was lynched by a racist mob and whilst some accused the trailer of indicating the film would be trauma exploitation and heavy handed, reports are that director Chinonye Chukwu's has been able to balance the complex subject matter with a strong lead performance from Danielle Deadwyler which has garnered rave reviews with many saying she may receive all the awards attention in the stacked Best Actress race (Chukwu’s last film Clemency was also well received and star Alfre Woodard was BAFTA nominated for her role).

The Unseen:

The most anticipated sight unseen is Damien Chazelle's Babylon. Having failed to launch (pun intended) his last film, First Man into above the line consideration, Babylon looks set to make a big impact in this years race. With newcomer Diego Calva as its lead, and Margot Robbie, Brad Pitt and Jean Smart starring in key roles, the film could garner multiple acting nominations, in addition to scoring multiple nominations in tech categories given its early Hollywood setting which lends itself to costumes, production design, makeup, score, sound, and editing nominations. The only thing that could hold the film back is its rating for mature content which could reduce its audience and voter appeal. 

Following on the topic of blockbusters we have James Cameron's Avatar: The Way of Water. The long awaited follow-up to the award winning 2009 film, its been over 10 years in the making, and whilst many joke about the lack of cultural impact the original made, its recent re-release seems to signal that the film is still popular, and might well engage the cultural consciousness again. It'll most certainly dominate tech categories, and seems the most likely of the big blockbusters on offer this year to crack the Best Picture lineup after Top Gun: Maverick. 

Similarly, we have Ryan Coogler's Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, the follow-up to the 2018 Best Picture nominee Black Panther. The film has the unenviable task of trying to address the unfortunate passing of Chadwick Boseman, and continue the story of the wider MCU. It will be interesting to see how the film performs in tech categories where the first won, and whether or not it will break in above the line in categories the original couldn't crack like screenplay or acting. 

Premiering soon at NYFF, is the much anticipated She Said, which details the investigation into the sexual abuse allegations against Harvey Weinstein. It remains to be seen if the film is more Spotlight (2015) and gets nominations in Picture, Director, acting and writing, more Bombshell (2019) and only gets acting notices or more The Report (2019) and garners no nominations at all. Given the subject matter, and its festival debut, it could well be more the former, and break into Best Picture and easily be a competitor in the thin Adapted Screenplay race. 

A slightly underdog contender is Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. The director’s last 2 films, The Shape of Water (2017) and Nightmare Alley (2021), were both nominated for Best Picture, with the former winning. As a beloved filmmaker, any del Toro feature is awaited with anticipation, and this is his first foray into animation. Whilst the Academy is less likely to nominate animated films in Best Picture (only 3 have been nominated, with the last being Toy Story 3 twelve years ago), if anyone can overcome the bias hurdle it would be del Toro and with Netflix backing the film, it could contend outside of just Best Animated Feature and potentially get nominations in score and VFX and maybe break into Best Picture.

Lastly there is the Whitney Housten biopic, I Wanna Dance with Somebody. You can never count out screenwriter Anthony McCarten's ability to get his biopics into acting contention, and ride their coattails into a screenplay nomination (The Theory of Everything (2014) won Best Actor for Eddie Redmayne, and was nominated for Actress for Felicity Jones and Adapted Screenplay, Darkest Hour (2017) won Best Actor for Gary Oldman, Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) won Best Actor for Rami Malek, and The Two Popes (2019) was nominated for Best Actor for Jonathan Pryce, Supporting Actor for Anthony Hopkins and Adapted Screenplay) and Kasi Lemmon's last film, Harriet (2020), was able to secure a nomination for Cynthia Erivo. Given the music biopic explosion currently happening, it'll be interesting to see how embraced the film is, and whether or not Naomi Ackie will break into the Best Actress five, and if the film can garner nominations elsewhere, especially when competing against other similar films like Elvis. 

Current Predictions:

Best Picture 

1. The Fabelmans
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Babylon
4. Women Talking
5. Top Gun: Maverick
6. Avatar: The Way of Water
7. The Banshees of Inisherin
8. TÁR
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 
11. Elvis
12. The Woman King
13. All Quiet on the Western Front
14. The Whale
15. She Said
16. I Wanna Dance with Somebody
17. Triangle of Sadness 
18. Till
19. Armageddon Time
20. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle-Babylon
2. Steven Spielberg-The Fabelmans
3. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert-Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Sarah Polley-Women Talking
5. Todd Field-TÁR
6. James Cameron-Avatar: The Way of Water
7. Martin McDonagh-The Banshees of Inisherin
8. Ruben Östlund-Triangle of Sadness
9. Joseph Kosinski-Top Gun: Maverick
10. Edward Berger-All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Actor

1. Brendan Fraser-The Whale
2. Colin Farrell-The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Austin Butler-Elvis
4. Hugh Jackman-The Son
5. Diego Calva-Babylon
6. Bill Nighy-Living
7. Adam Driver-White Noise 
8. Tom Cruise-Top Gun: Maverick
9. Jim Parsons-Spoiler Alert
10. Daniel Craig-Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 

Best Actress

1. Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Cate Blanchett-TÁR
3. Danielle Deadwyler-Till
4. Michelle Williams-The Fabelmans
5. Margot Robbie-Babylon
6. Naomi Ackie-I Wanna Dance with Somebody
7. Viola Davis-The Woman King
8. Olivia Colman-Empire of Light
9. Jennifer Lawrence-Causeway
10. Emma Thompson-Good Luck to You, Leo Grande 

Best Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson-The Banshees of Inisherin 
3. Ben Whishaw-Women Talking
4. Brad Pitt-Babylon
5. Paul Dano-The Fabelmans
6. Judd Hirsch-The Fabelmans
7. Micheal Ward-Empire of Light
8. Brian Tyree Henry-Causeway
9. Jeremy Strong-Armageddon Time
10. Eddie Redmayne-The Good Nurse

Best Supporting Actress

1. Jessie Buckley-Women Talking
2. Claire Foy-Women Talking
3. Stephanie Hsu-Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inishiren 
5. Janelle Monae-Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
6. Hong Chau-The Whale
7. Sadie Sink-The Whale
8. Jean Smart-Babylon
9. Thuso Mbedu-The Woman King
10. Anne Hathaway-Armageddon Time

Best Ensemble

1. Women Talking
2. The Fabelmans
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
5. Babylon
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 
7. The Woman King
8. The Whale
9. Triangle of Sadness
10. The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Original Screenplay

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Babylon
4. The Fabelmans
5. TÁR
6. Triangle of Sadness 
7. The Woman King
8. Decision to Leave
9. Nope
10. Armageddon Time

Best Adapted Screenplay 

1. Women Talking
2. The Whale
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
4. She Said
5. I Wanna Dance with Somebody 
6. All Quiet on the Western Front
7. Avatar: The Way of Water
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
9. Top Gun: Maverick
10. White Noise

Best Animated Feature

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2. Strange World
3. My Father’s Dragon
4. Turning Red
5. The Bad Guys
6. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
7. Wendell & Wild
8. The Sea Beast
9. Lightyear 
10. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Best Score

1. Justin Hurwitz-Babylon
2. Hildur Guðnadóttir-Women Talking
3. John Williams-The Fabelmans
4. Carter Burwell-The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Alexandre Desplat-Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
6. Hildur Guðnadóttir-TÁR
7. Michael Giacchino-The Batman
8. Ludwig Göransson-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 
9. Simon Franglen-Avatar: The Way of Water
10. Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross-Empire of Light

Best Song

1. Hold My Hand-Top Gun: Maverick
2. Nobody Like U-Turning Red
3. Naatu Naatu-RRR
4. This is a Life-Everything Everywhere All at Once
5. Untitled-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
6. New Body Rhumba-White Noise
7. Carolina-Where the Crawdads Sing
8. Vegas-Elvis
9. On My Way-Marry Me
10. Untitled-Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical

Best Cinematography

1. Babylon
2. The Fabelmans
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
6. The Batman
7. BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 
9. Empire of Light
10. Elvis

Best Editing

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once 
3. Babylon
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. The Fabelmans
6. Elvis
7. All Quiet on the Western Front
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
9. Women Talking
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Sound

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Avatar: The Way or Water
4. The Batman
5. Elvis
6. Babylon
7. Nope
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
9. Everything Everywhere All At Once
10. I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 
4. The Batman
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
6. Everything Everywhere All At Once
7. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
8. Nope
9. Good Night Oppy 
10. RRR

Best Production Design

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5. Elvis
6. BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
7. Empire of Light
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
9. All Quiet on the Western Front
10. Empire of Light

Best Costume Design

1. Babylon
2. Elvis
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. The Woman King
5. Corsage
6. The Fabelmans
7. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
8. Everything Everywhere All At Once 
9. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
10. I Wanna Dance with Somebody 

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling 

1. Babylon 
2. The Whale
3. The Batman
4. Elvis
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
6. All Quiet on the Western Front
7. The Woman King
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing 
9. Everything Everywhere All At Once
10. X

Best International Feature

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
2. Decision to Leave (South Korea)
3. Close (Belgium)
4. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
5. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
6. Saint-Omer (France)
7. Holy Spider (Denmark)
8. BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Mexico)
9. Corsage (Austria)
10. Alcarrás (Spain)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Fire of Love
2. Navalny
3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
4. Descendant 
5. Moonage Daydream
6. Good Night Oppy
7. Icarus: The Aftermath
8. Sr.
9. The Territory
10. Black Ice