MY FINAL 2021 OSCAR PREDICTIONS



Thankfully the 2021 awards season is almost at its end! Yet another drawn out season thanks to the impact of COVID-19, this extended season has caused interesting winners to emerge as narratives, campaigns and cultural shifts have shaped the awards landscape. It is probable that if certain awards bodies held their voting and ceremonies earlier, that different winners would have eventuated and our final Oscar results would be different. Alas, I can't yet speculate on who would've won the Oscar for this and that, as the winners haven't even won yet. But what I can speculate on, is who will win in the first place at the 94th Academy Awards this coming Sunday (Monday 11am AEDT in Australia)! SO what do I envisage walking away with the gold? Read on below:


Best Picture 

Having won the BAFTA and Critics' Choice, and swept the critics awards, The Power of the Dog seems the confident frontrunner, especially with its leading nomination tally with 12 noms. However, whilst Belfast was originally viewed as the popular favourite and underdog, it is actually CODA with its PGA win and surging support that places it as the potential spoiler. Many have made arguments about the preferential ballot giving opportunity to films like Dune, Don't Look Up and King Richard. But after two years of the preferential ballot still providing winners like Parasite and Nomadland, I feel that The Power of the Dog will still be favourable voted, especially with the broader international voting body. 

  1. The Power of the Dog
  2. CODA
  3. Belfast
  4. Dune
  5. Don’t Look Up 
  6. King Richard
  7. West Side Story 
  8. Licorice Pizza
  9. Drive My Car 
  10. Nightmare Alley


Best Director

This is Jane Campion's award to lose. She's won all the major and minor precursors, and I can't see anyone else taking this statuette away from her. If anyone else wins, it'll be the biggest upset of the night.

  1. Jane Campion-The Power of the Dog
  2. Kenneth Branagh-Belfast
  3. Ryūsuke Hamaguchi-Drive My Car
  4. Steven Spielberg-West Side Story
  5. Paul Thomas Anderson-Licorice Pizza


Best Actor

Whilst some thought Benedict Cumberbatch might carry his critics wins across to industry wins, in reality, Will Smith, the presumed frontrunner all season, has indeed won all the major awards, including the BAFTA, a crucial win that signals broad support. Again, if someone else wins, it'll be a big surprise.

  1. Will Smith-King Richard
  2. Benedict Cumberbatch-The Power of the Dog
  3. Andrew Garfield-tick, tick...BOOM!
  4. Denzel Washington-The Tragedy of Macbeth
  5. Javier Bardem-Being the Ricardos


Best Actress

An insane race all season, it's taken months to finally feel confident in a winner. With no crossover at the BAFTAs, we look to the SAG and Critics' Choice winner, Jessica Chastain, who is my pick to win. Some still feel that Kidman will follow her Globe winner, and there's lots of support for critics favourite Kristen Stewart, but honestly, Chastain is the most likely winner, and the accompanying makeup nom (and likely win) make for a a good pairing.

  1. Jessica Chastain-The Eyes of Tammy Faye
  2. Kristen Stewart-Spencer
  3. Nicole Kidman-Being the Ricardos
  4. Olivia Colman-The Lost Daughter
  5. Penélope Cruz-Parallel Mothers 


Best Supporting Actor

Whilst Kodi Smit-McPhee swept the critics groups, and won the Globe, the rest of the major awards have been won by Troy Kotsur, who's narrative is certainly stronger, and accompanies the film's timely surge. When Kotsur wins, it'll not only be historic, but very much deserved. 

  1. Troy Kotsur-CODA
  2. Kodi Smit-McPhee-The Power of the Dog 
  3. Ciarán Hinds-Belfast
  4. Jesse Plemons-The Power of the Dog
  5. J.K. Simmons-Being the Ricardos


Best Supporting Actress

Whilst West Side Story has been subject to shocking snubs this season, the most consistent win the film has garnered is for Ariana DeBose in supporting actress. Following in the footsteps of Rita Moreno who won for the same role in the original adaptation, DeBose seems locked for the win here. 

  1. Ariana DeBose-West Side Story
  2. Kirsten Dunst-The Power of the Dog
  3. Aunjanue Ellis-King Richard
  4. Jessie Buckley-The Lost Daughter
  5. Judi Dench-Belfast


Best Original Screenplay

A genuinely uncertain category to predict, Belfast won the Critics' Choice, Licorice Pizza won the BAFTA and Don't Look Up won the WGA, meaning all 3 are in with a shot to win. The recent backlash to Licorice Pizza may dampen its chances, whilst the loud love for The Worst Person in the World could land it a surprising underdog win!

  1. Belfast
  2. Licorice Pizza
  3. Don’t Look Up
  4. King Richard 
  5. The Worst Person in the World


Best Adapted Screenplay

Two weeks ago, this seemed to be The Power of the Dog's award to win, but now that CODA has the BAFTA and WGA, and is surging in other categories, it's certainly positioned to win. I'd love to see Drive My Car take this, but that's pretty unlikely.

  1. The Power of the Dog
  2. CODA
  3. Drive My Car 
  4. The Lost Daughter
  5. Dune


Best Animated Feature

Whilst The Mitchells vs. The Machines has its broad fanbase, the sheer success of Encanto commercially, likely secures its win here. 

  1. Encanto
  2. The Mitchells vs. The Machines
  3. Flee
  4. Luca
  5. Raya and the Last Dragon


Best Original Score

Having only ever won once in 1995 for The Lion King out of 12 nominations, Zimmer is long overdue for another win, and whilst some argue it's not his most deserved statue, the narrative seems set to outweigh all other contenders. 

  1. Hans Zimmer-Dune
  2. Jonny Greenwood-The Power of the Dog 
  3. Nicholas Britell-Don’t Look Up 
  4. Germaine Franco-Encanto
  5. Alberto Iglesias-Parallel Mothers


Best Original Song

An interesting three horse race, Billie Eilish's 'No Time to Die' won the Globe and Critics' Choice, and being a Bond song has a strong precedent to win (2012's Skyfall and 2015's Writing on the Wall etc.) However, the opportunity to award Beyonce for Be Alive is certainly tempting and whilst the less popular song from Encanto finds itself nominated here, voters may want to honour the films music on the whole and complete Lin-Manuel Miranda's EGOT by handing him a statue for Dos Oruguitas. 

  1. ‘No Time to Die’ - No Time to Die 
  2. ‘Dos Oruguitas’ - Encanto
  3. 'Be Alive' - King Richard
  4. ‘Down to Joy’ - Belfast 
  5. ‘Somehow You Do’ - Four Good Days 


Best Cinematography

Looking across the tech categories, Dune seems set to sweep, and cinematography is one if its most likely wins, especially with its ASC win and Greig Fraser's latest work in The Batman keeping him in the conversation.

  1. Dune
  2. The Power of the Dog
  3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
  4. Nightmare Alley
  5. West Side Story 


Best Editing

One of the more interesting races, BAFTA winner No Time to Die isn't nominated here, nor is Critics' Choice winner West Side Story. Both ACE winners, King Richard and tick, tick... BOOM! are nominated here, but neither have a crucial sound nomination which usually accompanies an editing win. That leaves Dune and The Power of the Dog, and with Dune expected to take sound, I'm predicted it to take editing as well.

  1. Dune
  2. tick, tick...BOOM!
  3. King Richard
  4. Don’t Look Up
  5. The Power of the Dog


Best Sound

As mentioned above, Dune is practically guaranteed to sweep tech categories, and sound is an easy win for the sci-fi blockbuster epic. No real contest here. 

  1. Dune
  2. No Time to Die
  3. West Side Story
  4. Belfast
  5. The Power of the Dog


Best Visual Effects

Again, this is Dune's to win. It won BAFTA, Critics' Choice and VES. Anything else will be a massive upset.

  1. Dune
  2. Spider-Man: No Way Home
  3. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
  4. No Time to Die
  5. Free Guy


Best Production Design

The Art Directors Guild (ADG) awarded Dune for Fantasy and Nightmare Alley for Period, placing both as the front runners. I'm giving the slight edge to Dune as it won the BAFTA and Critics' Choice as well. Would be a nice win for Nightmare Alley though if voters want to share the love around. 

  1. Dune
  2. Nightmare Alley
  3. West Side Story 
  4. The Tragedy of Macbeth
  5. The Power of the Dog


Best Costume Design

Ever since debuting in March, Cruella has been hailed as the eventual winner here. Having won all precursors, it's pretty much guaranteed to win, even as it faces stiff competition from more broadly nominated Best Picture nominees. 

  1. Cruella
  2. West Side Story
  3. Nightmare Alley
  4. Dune
  5. Cyrano


Best Make-Up and Hairstyling 

Having won the BAFTA and Critics' Choice, and with Jessica Chastain likely to win Best Actress, this seems likely to go to The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Dune's work is certainly impressive, and Coming 2 America won at the MUAHS, but the obvious winner here is Tammy Faye.

  1. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
  2. Dune
  3. Coming 2 America
  4. House of Gucci
  5. Cruella


Best International Feature Film 

It's Drive My Car. Nominated also for Best Adapted Screenplay, Director and PICTURE! There is no way it doesn't win here. 

  1. Drive My Car - Japan
  2. The Worst Person in the World - Norway
  3. Flee - Denmark
  4. The Hand of God - Italy
  5. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom - Bhutan


Best Documentary 

Whilst many speculated that Summer of Soul would be snubbed of a nomination, instead it was The Rescue that missed here, leaving the path clear for Summer of Soul to deservedly win, although triple nominee Flee is hot on its heels, and this is its most likely category to upset in. 

  1. Summer of Soul (…Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
  2. Flee
  3. Ascension
  4. Attica
  5. Writing with Fire


Best Documentary Short

A general consensus has formed around The Queen of Basketball being the frontrunner here with its fascinating subject and distribution involved

  1. The Queen of Basketball
  2. Three Songs for Benazir
  3. Audible
  4. When We Were Bullies
  5. Lead Me Home


Best Live Action Short

This seems very likely to go to The Long Goodbye, starring Riz Ahmed as an accompaniment to his latest album. Last years winner wasn't subtle, and that seems to be the case again this year.

  1. The Long Goodbye
  2. Ala Kachuu - Take and Run
  3. The Dress
  4. Please Hold
  5. On My Mind 


Best Animated Short

Coming from animation heavyweights Aardman, and with Netflix behind it, the 30 minute Robin Robin is almost guaranteed the win here, after the surprise snubs of Disney's Us Again and Far From the Tree 

  1. Robin Robin
  2. The Windshield Wiper
  3. Bestia
  4. Affairs of the Art
  5. Boxballet
And those are my final predictions for the 94th Academy Awards! Tune in Monday to see the winners!

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