MovieMike’s Final Oscar Nomination Predictions 2021

Alright….. I thought about obsessively covering the entire awards season, with blog posts about every awards group from small indie societies to the larger guilds. But I’m also lazy, unmotivated and I moved house the weekend before Christmas, then got COVID-19 and had other things to do. So, with my excuses out of the way, wow. What an awards season it’s been thus far. And here we are on the eve of the Oscar nominations. Better late than never to post some predictions aye?


Best Picture 

The top 8 are all pretty much secure having hit all the major precursors and I find it hard to see any of them missing especially with the expanded 10 nominee slots. I also think tick, tick… BOOM! will get in, based off solid precursor support and Garfield getting in for Actor, although it’ll likely have the lowest nomination count of the lineup. That 10th slot has been stressful to pick but I’ve ultimately gone with Drive My Car. There has been a foreign language film in the lineup for the last couple of years (Minari, Parasite, Roma etc.) and with Drive My Car expected to win Foreign Language and looking to score noms in Director/Adapted Screenplay, I’m giving it the spot. Wouldn’t be shocked to see Being the Ricardos, Nightmare Alley or House of Gucci take the spot instead though as each have certain precursor noms and are likely to pick up between 3-4 nominations. 

  1. The Power of the Dog
  2. Belfast
  3. Licorice Pizza
  4. Dune
  5. West Side Story 
  6. Don’t Look Up 
  7. King Richard
  8. CODA
  9. tick, tick… BOOM!
  10. Drive My Car 


Best Director

Seeing as the DGA 5 nominees haven’t lined up with the Oscar 5 since 2009, someone is probably getting snubbed in place of Hamaguchi. I think Branagh is more likely to miss over Spielberg purely because Spielberg is more respected in the directors branch and his work on West Side Story ranks amongst his best.

  1. Jane Campion-The Power of the Dog
  2. Denis Villeneuve-Dune
  3. Paul Thomas Anderson-Licorice Pizza
  4. Ryūsuke Hamaguchi-Drive My Car
  5. Steven Spielberg-West Side Story


Best Actor

The top 4 are solidly locked and with the love for Don’t Look Up and DiCaprio’s recent BAFTA nom, I’m thinking he coattails and gets in over the more deserving but sorely under seen Peter Dinklage for Cyrano. Wouldn’t be a fan but could also see Javier Bardem getting in for Being the Ricardos after getting in at SAG.

  1. Will Smith-King Richard
  2. Benedict Cumberbatch-The Power of the Dog
  3. Andrew Garfield-tick, tick...BOOM!
  4. Denzel Washington-The Tragedy of Macbeth
  5. Leonardo DiCaprio-Don’t Look Up


Best Actress

The most insane category two years in a row, I’ve got Gaga on top as she’ll likely win the BAFTA. Kidman and Chastain are also fairly safe. I’m still hoping Stewart gets in even after her SAG and BAFTA snubs. Speaking of BAFTA, the love for Alana Haim there has me moving her into the fifth spot, bumping out Olivia Colman who could still easily make the lineup. I’m also expecting a surprise from either Cruz, Reinsve, Hudson or Golden Globe Winner Rachel Zegler…

  1. Lady Gaga-House of Gucci
  2. Nicole Kidman-Being the Ricardos
  3. Jessica Chastain-The Eyes of Tammy Faye 
  4. Kristen Stewart-Spencer
  5. Alana Haim-Licorice Pizza


Best Supporting Actor

Replicating the chaos of last years Supporting Actress race, Supporting Actor this year has settled on a solid top 4 but with a wide open fifth spot that could go anywhere. I’ve gone with my gut and picked Plemons purely because he’s overdue, well respected, and in the Best Picture frontrunner. I also think dual noms from the same film are more likely for TPotD over both Belfast boys getting in, but Dornan could prove me wrong. Bradley Cooper could also ride the Licorice Pizza love and get in, or Mike Faist could replicate his BAFTA nom. There’s also Ben Affleck and J.K. Simmons who can’t be discredited as potential spoilers.

  1. Kodi Smit-McPhee-The Power of the Dog 
  2. Troy Kotsur-CODA
  3. Ciarán Hinds-Belfast
  4. Jared Leto-House of Gucci
  5. Jesse Plemons-The Power of the Dog


Best Supporting Actress

A pretty clear consensus has developed around these five, and whilst my gut feels like a surprise is coming, I’m predicting the safe lineup. Would be ecstatic if Ann Dowd gets in for Mass, or maybe Cate Blanchett’s SAG nomination wasn’t as much of an outlier as originally thought.

  1. Ariana DeBose-West Side Story
  2. Caitríona Balfe-Belfast
  3. Kirsten Dunst-The Power of the Dog
  4. Aunjanue Ellis-King Richard
  5. Ruth Negga-Passing


Best Original Screenplay

I’m going with the safe picks here again, which also happens to be the BAFTA lineup. Wouldn’t be shocked to see The French Dispatch slip in here instead of King Richard. If I was a voter, Mass and C’mon C’mon would be 1. & 2. but we don’t always get what we want.

  1. Belfast
  2. Licorice Pizza
  3. Don’t Look Up
  4. Being the Ricardos
  5. King Richard 


Best Adapted Screenplay 

This is The Power of the Dog’s award to lose. My biggest gamble in all my predictions is my faith in West Side Story despite its numerous precursor snubs. I’m hoping it gets in here, and feel CODA and Dune are pretty safe bets as well. After getting it’s much needed BAFTA nom, I’m pretty comfortable predicated Drive My Car in that last slot, with The Lost Daughter, Passing and tick, tick… BOOM! all waiting in the wings. Also never count out the writers branch love for Joel Coen, even when adapting Shakespeare…

  1. The Power of the Dog
  2. West Side Story
  3. CODA
  4. Dune
  5. Drive My Car 


Best Animated Feature

Again a pretty safe 5 picks, and I could see Belle or Sing 2 spoiling, but oh man…. if Flee or The Mitchells misses I will riot!

  1. Luca
  2. Encanto
  3. The Mitchells vs. The Machines
  4. Flee
  5. Raya and the Last Dragon


Best Original Score

Zimmer, Greenwood and Desplat all seem pretty safe. Britell is coasting on the Don’t Look Up coattails. I’ve got Globe nominee Franco in fifth position, but fellow Globe nominee Alberto Iglesias could usurp, as could BAFTA nominee Daniel Pemberton. In a just world, Greenwood would be a dual nominee and also get in for Spencer.

  1. Hans Zimmer-Dune
  2. Jonny Greenwood-The Power of the Dog 
  3. Alexandre Desplat-The French Dispatch
  4. Nicholas Britell-Don’t Look Up 
  5. Germaine Franco-Encanto


Best Original Song

Again a pretty safe 5 but Belfast’s ‘Down to Joy’ could also crack the lineup. Never count out 12x nominee Diane Warren who’s eligible this year for her song in Four Good Days.

  1. ‘Be Alive’ - King Richard
  2. ‘No Time to Die’ - No Time to Die 
  3. ‘Dos Oruguitas’ - Encanto
  4. ‘Just Look Up’ - Don’t Look Up
  5. ‘Guns Go Bang’ - The Harder They Fall 


Best Cinematography

This seems like a no brainer lineup even with West Side Story missing ASC and BAFTA. Belfast could spoil and don’t count out a surprise foreign language pick like The Hand of God.

  1. Dune
  2. The Power of the Dog
  3. West Side Story 
  4. The Tragedy of Macbeth
  5. Nightmare Alley


Best Editing

A category with a wide range of options, I’ve gone with the top 5 Best Picture nominees, but I’m expecting to only have 4/5 picks correct. I’ve got my eye on No Time to Die which could follow its ACE and BAFTA noms, but would love to see tick, tick… BOOM! make it. Wouldn’t be shocked to see King Richard, Don’t Look Up or The French Dispatch either.

  1. Dune
  2. Belfast
  3. Licorice Pizza
  4. West Side Story 
  5. The Power of the Dog


Best Sound

The top 3 seem pretty safe and I’m going with Spider-Man because I just feel it in my bones. I’m also predicting West Side Story because like I said, I have faith despite its precursor snubs. Would not be shocked to see The Matrix Resurrections or Belfast get in instead.

  1. Dune
  2. No Time to Die
  3. A Quiet Place Part II 
  4. Spider-Man: No Way Home
  5. West Side Story


Best Visual Effects

Dune and Matrix seem locked, and despite their general indifference to the MCU, the fact that all 4 of last years entries made the shortlist gives me confidence predicting at least 2. Hot off its BAFTA nom, and with an apparently impressive presentation at the VFX bake-off, I’ve got Ghostbusters: Afterlife in fifth. Wouldn’t be surprised to see No Time to Die, Free Guy or even Eternals.

  1. Dune
  2. The Matrix Resurrections
  3. Spider-Man: No Way Home
  4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
  5. Ghostbusters: Afterlife


Best Production Design

Again a pretty safe 5, but wouldn’t be shocked to see Belfast or Cyrano make it in.

  1. Dune
  2. Nightmare Alley
  3. The French Dispatch
  4. West Side Story 
  5. The Tragedy of Macbeth


Best Costume Design

Despite both being snubbed at BAFTA, I’ve still got House of Gucci and West Side Story in for the Oscars. BAFTA nominees Cyrano and The French Dispatch could make the list, and I’d love to see Spencer get in. If Last Night in Soho couldn’t get in at BAFTA then I doubt it will here, but never say never…

  1. Dune
  2. Cruella
  3. House of Gucci
  4. West Side Story
  5. Nightmare Alley


Best Make-Up and Hairstyling 

The Academy makeup branch loves prosthetics and comedies and so I’m pretty confident predicting Coming 2 America after the 3 secure front runners. Cruella is a safe fifth pick, but The Suicide Squad or Cyrano could spoil.

  1. Dune
  2. House of Gucci
  3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
  4. Coming 2 America
  5. Cruella


Best International Feature Film

It feels far too safe to predict this 5, but they are the five most likely to get in, even if not all 5 do. Finland’s Compartment No. 6 and Spain’s The Good Boss could easily spoil. 

  1. Drive My Car - Japan
  2. The Worst Person in the World - Norway
  3. A Hero - Iran
  4. Flee - Denmark
  5. The Hand of God - Italy


Best Documentary 

Despite the frontrunner being consistently snubbed in prior years, I believe Summer of Soul will still make it in, but Flee is a certainty. There’s always something interesting in this lineup, so don’t be too surprised to see Ascension or Faya Dayi sneak in. 

  1. Flee
  2. Summer of Soul (…Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
  3. The Rescue
  4. The First Wave
  5. Procession

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