MovieMike’s Oz-cars Best Picture Predictions October 2021

Well, it's been a crazy month or so with TIFF, Telluride, Venice, NYFF and a few others. Recently, the Sydney Film Festival unveiled its program and it's exciting that for the first time (due to COVID delays) that the festival will have some big Fall festival films in its lineup. The festival normally happens in July and gets maybe a Sundance film or two, maybe something from Cannes and that's usually it. Instead, they've got The Power of the Dog, Dune, King Richard, The French Dispatch, Flee, and more! (Sadly no Spencer, Belfast or The Tragedy of Macbeth). Nonetheless, it is nice for NSW to be out of lockdown just in time for the steady release of this years awards fare (still delayed compared to the US, but hey something is better than nothing). And so, as fall festival fare comes to cinemas and audiences, let's look at the awards field so far!

After (unsurprisingly) winning the People's Choice Award at TIFF, Belfast now sits comfortably atop the list. It's a popular crowd pleaser that seems to be a balance between Green Book and ROMA, with it's family tale, broad appeal, personal story, and black & white cinematography. Of all the fall festival films, it seems to have landed the strongest with both audiences and critics, collectively. It's not critics favourite film, but its a safe and accessible one, and that solidifies its odds. The Power of the Dog on the other hand, has proved far more divisive that expected after the festival tour. Whilst many critics lauded it, it's generally been pushed to be not as audience friendly as other films. It still has strong buzz, but nothing like before the festivals when it was atop most people's lists. The other major film of the Fall season is Dune, which will release on Oct 22 in the US (but Dec 2 in Australia. I'll be seeing it at the SFF on Nov 10!). It's landed strongly and is being proclaimed the next Lord of the Rings, and should sweep the tech categories and easily make the expanded Best Picture lineup. Then there are the two fall festival acting frontrunners in Spencer and King Richard. With Kristen Stewart and Will Smith being the expected winners of Actress and Actor, respectively, it's not hard to see their films garnering nominations in Picture. King Richard is a crowd pleaser, and Spencer is a critical darling, and whilst Lorrain's Jackie didn't land in Picture back in 2016, Spencer looks primed to right that wrong. Lastly, there's The Tragedy of Macbeth which premiered at NYFF, and was lauded for its performances and cinematography, but seems to be more auteur than expected (I mean its already a black and white Shakespeare adaptation) and with Apple as it's distributor, may not make the lineup. 

Opposite the fall festival films, we still have many films that are currently sight unseen, and so can only be predicted based solely on expectation and association. Paul Thomas Anderson's officially titled Licorice Pizza (a much better named than Soggy Bottom), had a fantastic first trailer and looks like a fantastic time, however PTA isn't always a sure thing with the Academy. He did get a much deserved yet surprise nomination for Best Director for Phantom Thread after garnering few precursors, but Phantom Thread itself was broadly embraced by the Academy. His previous films of the decade didn't fare as well. So it remains to be see if Licorice Pizza will be welcomed with open arms, but I have a strong feeling it will. In comparison, Guillermo del Toro's Nightmare Alley will undoubtedly be lavished with nominations based of the luxurious trailer they dropped. After The Shape of Water was so well beloved, his follow-up effort will likely also be popular with voters. The Academy are also big fans of Steven Spielberg, who's recent Oscar bait like War Horse, Lincoln, Bridge of Spies and The Post have been taken hook, line and sinker, and his remake of West Side Story, is likely to be a huge hit with audiences and in the tech categories. The original won Best Picture of 1961 and picked up another 9 wins out of it's 11 nominations, so the precedent is there for Spielberg's remake to do very well.  

The Academy also seem to love Adam McKay, with The Big Short and Vice doing extremely well, which bodes well for his latest film Don't Look Up. However, its a fictional satire and may be too unsubtle and brash to be widely embraced (it didn't stop Vice, but that at least had an element of scarily real history.) Ridley Scott on the other hand has been very hit and miss, but with two films this year, The Last Duel and House of Gucci, the odds seem in his favour, particularly for the latter which has a strong cast and crafts, and could be Scott's return to the Oscars after The Martian (2017's All the Money in the World did garner a sole acting nomination, but The Martian was a far more embraced affair). The last sight unseen is Lin-Manuel Miranda's directorial debut: tick, tick... BOOM! In a year filled with musicals, West Side Story and tick, tick... BOOM! seem the most likely to land in Best Picture, and Miranda's massive 2021 could be crowned with a Best Picture nomination on top of further nominations in Song for Encanto or Vivo or In the Heights!. 

So with all that in mind, here are my Best Picture predictions: 

Best Picture:

1. Belfast
2. Dune
3. The Power of the Dog 
4. Licorice Pizza
5. Nightmare Alley
6. Spencer
7. King Richard
8. West Side Story
9. Don't Look Up
10. House of Gucci

Alternatives: The Tragedy of Macbeth; tick, tick... BOOM!

Other Categories:

Best Director:

1. Denis Villeneuve-Dune
2. Kenneth Branagh-Belfast
3. Jane Campion-The Power of the Dog
4. Paul Thomas Anderson-Licorice Pizza
5. Guillermo Del Toro-Nightmare Alley

Best Actor

1. Will Smith-King Richard
2. Benedict Cumberbatch-The Power of the Dog
3. Denzel Washington-The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Peter Dinklage-Cyrano
5. Andrew Garfield-tick, tick...BOOM!

Best Actress

1. Kristen Stewart-Spencer
2. Jessica Chastain-The Eyes of Tammy Faye
3. Lady Gaga-House of Gucci
4. Olivia Colman-The Lost Daughter
5. Frances McDormand-The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Supporting Actor

1. Jaime Dornan-Belfast
2. Jared Leto-House of Gucci
3. Ciaran Hinds-Belfast
4. Bradley Cooper-Licorice Pizza
5. Ben Affleck-The Tender Bar

Best Supporting Actress 

1. Caitriona Balfe-Belfast
2. Kirsten Dunst-The Power of the Dog
3. Aunjanue Ellis-King Richard
4. Ruth Negga-Passing
5. Judi Dench-Belfast

SAG Best Ensemble

1. Belfast
2. House of Gucci 
3. Don’t Look Up 
4. Nightmare Alley
5. The Power of the Dog 

Best Animated Feature

1. Flee
2. Luca
3. Encanto
4. The Mitchells vs. The Machines
5. The Summit of the Gods

Best Original Screenplay

1. Belfast
2. Licorice Pizza
3. Don’t Look Up
4. King Richard
5. Spencer

Best Adapted Screenplay 

1. Nightmare Alley
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth 
4. The Lost Daughter
5. Dune

Best Original Score

1. Hans Zimmer-Dune
2. Jonny Greenwood-The Power of the Dog
3. Jonny Greenwood-Spencer
4. Alexandre Desplat-The French Dispatch
5. Carter Burwell-The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Original Song

1. 'Be Alive' - King Richard
2. 'No Time to Die' - No Time to Die
3. 'Down to Joy - Belfast
4. 'Columbia, Mi Encanto' - Encanto
5. 'Every Letter' - Cyrano

Best Cinematography

1. Dune
2. Nightmare Alley
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. West Side Story 
5. Belfast

Best Editing

1. Dune
2. Belfast
3. Don’t Look Up
4. West Side Story 
5. Nightmare Alley 

Best Sound

1. Dune
2. No Time to Die
3. The Matrix Resurrections
4. West Side Story
5. Belfast

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. The Matrix Resurrections
3. Eternals
4. Godzilla vs. Kong
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Best Production Design

1. Nightmare Alley
2. The French Dispatch
3. Dune
4. House of Gucci
5. West Side Story 

Best Costume Design

1. Cruella
2. House of Gucci
3. Spencer
4. West Side Story
5. Cyrano

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling 

1. House of Gucci
2. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
3. Cruella
4. Dune
5. Spencer