Guess Who's Back! That's Right! MovieMike's Oscar Predictions! The Oz-cars!

So here we are yet again! The awards season is beginning to shape up, and thankfully it is no where near as long as last years! And we’ve got a far larger group of movies vying for nominations! Many big awards films got bumped from last year meaning this year is filled with big competitors! Whilst people, including myself, have put together prediction lists as early as April, it’s September and the arrival of the big Fall festivals like Venice, Telluride, TIFF and NYFF that really establish the front runners! We’ve also got a confirmed 10 nominee slots for Best Picture this year instead of the flexible amount we’ve had previously. So where do I currently sit on predictions! Well let's find out in my newly rebranded MovieMike's Oz-cars! (Geddit because Australian-based movie reviewer and Oscars and Aussie and yeah you get it.)

Firstly, we are still in the midst of the Fall festival premieres and with that in mind, I won't be ranking any predictions here. (but feel free to check out the side bar where my predictions are constantly updated). Rather, this post is going to be an introduction to this year's contenders as they've emerged thus far!

Firstly, there's the Netflix slate which is just as punchy as last years which had Mank, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Pieces of a Woman etc. This years slate has a similar mixture of acting vehicles, big name directors and an international offering. Up first is Jane Campion's directorial return The Power of the Dog, which has screened at both Venice and Telluride, and is slated to hit Toronto and New York, giving it maximum festival coverage. With an apparent career best performance from Benedict Cumberbatch, and a tone described as similar to 2007's There Will Be Blood, it's shaping up from initial reactions to be a poetic and meditative frontier film that will land with some and miss with others but it's still likely to score nominations in Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design at least. Next up there's Lin-Manuel Miranda's directorial debut tick, tick...BOOM!, an adaption of a Broadway musical which is dropping amidst a flurry of high profile movie musicals this year and Miranda's banner year. It's expected to be a vehicle for Andrew Garfield in Actor, and might score a few other noms in Sound and Song, and could potentially sneak into Picture as well. Next there's Adam McKay's new satirical comedy Don't Look Up, that unlike The Big Short and Vice is an original story about climate scientists played by Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence amidst an absolutely packed ensemble featuring the likes of Meryl Streep and Jonah Hill. It's likely to land in the same categories as McKay's other films, so look for nominations for Original Screenplay, Editing, potentially score for Nicholas Britell and an acting nomination somewhere. Additionally, there's Italian director Paolo Sorrentino's The Hand of God, which is eyeing to not only be nominated for International Feature, but be this year's foreign film that breaks out into other categories like Director, Cinematography and maybe even Picture itself. Lastly, there's a trio of Actress acting vehicles with boxing drama Bruised staring Halle Berry, the black-and-white Passing starring Ruth Negga and Tessa Thompson which premiered to strong reviews at Sundance, and the biggest of the three, Maggie Gyllenhaal's directorial debut The Lost Daughter, which stars awards favourite Olivia Colman, in a performance lauded after the film's Venice debut. 

Next there's the impressive slate from MGM, who've not often had a slate this strong. Their strongest contender is Ridley Scott's House of Gucci, one of two Scott films vying for Oscar attention, the other being Fox Searchlight's The Last Duel, with the former staring Lady Gaga, Adam Driver, Jared Leto, Al Pacino, Jeremy Irons & Salma Hayek, so expect at least 2 acting nominations on top of a likely Picture nomination. The film's gorgeous costumes and impressive makeup are also likely to score noms come nomination morning. Then there's Paul Thomas Anderson's Soggy Bottom, another 70's set piece from the still Oscarless director. Will this be the film to finally net him a win? The cast includes the late Philip Seymour Hoffman's son, Cooper Hoffman opposite Bradley Cooper, who's likely to score a nomination in Supporting Actor. Expect it to also score nominations in Original Screenplay, Costumes and Score, with composer Jonny Greenwood likely to score at least one nomination for Score, having also worked on The Power of the Dog and Spencer. Lastly, there's Joe Wright's Cyrano, another musical adaption, this one staring Peter Dinklage who early reviews have heralded as destined for an Actor nomination. Additionally, being a Wright production, it could potentially score nominations in Costume Design and Production Design. MGM also have the Aretha Franklin biopic Respect, staring Jennifer Hudson who is a strong contender for an Actress nomination, but could also score a Costume and Hairstyling nomination. And don’t count out the latest 007 blockbuster No Time to Die which could either just be a technical play in craft categories or go the extra mile that Skyfall could not despite its buzz in Supporting categories and Picture. 

After a lacklustre 2020 awards slate, Warner Bros. have two massive contenders in Denis Villeneuve's adaptation of the sci-fi epic Dune, and the sports biopic King Richard starring Will Smith as the father of Venus and Serena Williams. Dune is being lauded as the next big critical blockbuster hit, following in the footsteps of other genre hits like Mad Max: Fury Road, Inception, and The Lord of the Rings etc. and seems set to sweep the technical awards and hopefully score nominations for Picture and Director as well. King Richard on the other hand looks set to be one of the year's largest crowd pleasers in the vein of The Help, Hidden Figures and The Blind Side, with Will Smith settling in as the frontrunner for Best Actor and the film likely to score nominations for Supporting Actress, Song, and maybe Screenplay, all whilst trying to slip into the Best Picture lineup. 

Next we have 20th Century Studios and Searchlight, who both sit under the Disney brand, and have a solid lineup between them. 20th Century has Steven Spielberg's classic musical West Side Story remake and Ridley Scott's aforementioned medieval epic The Last Duel, while Searchlight have Michael Showalter's televangelist biopic The Eyes of Tammy Faye starring Jessica Chastain, Wes Anderson's eclectic ensemble anthology The French Dispatch and Guillermo Del Toro's detective noir Nightmare Alley starring Bradley Cooper, Willem Dafoe, Rooney Mara, Cate Blanchett, Toni Collette and more. Across all these films expect nominations for Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and a slew of acting nominations. Spielberg, Scott and Del Toro will all be competing for spots in Best Director, whilst Jessica Chastain is eyeing an Actress nomination. Alexandre Desplat has two Score nomination options with Nightmare Alley and The French Dispatch, having won his last two Oscars for previous collaborations with Anderson and Del Toro. Disney themselves only have Tony Gillespie's Cruella, which is eyeing Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling nominations. 

Then there's Focus Features who have Edgar Wright's Last Night in Soho and Paul Schrader's The Card Counter which look mainly to be Original Screenplay contenders that could score acting nominations as well. However, both are likely to be less campaigned as Focus focuses on Kenneth Branagh's semi-autobiographical Belfast which has charmed critics and audiences and is likely to score nominations in Picture, Director, Original Screenplay and Cinematography, whilst the heavily praised cast will likely yield numerous nominations depending on their category placement.

Then there's independent juggernaut A24, who's recent distribution agreement with AppleTV+ is bringing us Joel Coen's The Tragedy of Macbeth starring Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand, who are strong contenders in Actor and Actress, alongside the films chances in Director, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Production Design and Costume Design. A24 also have another stage play adaptation The Humans starring Steven Yeun, Beanie Feldstein, Richard Jenkins and Jayne Houdyshell, with the later two likely to mirror the plays nominations in Supporting Actor and Actress, respectively, whilst AppleTV+ have the Sundance crowd-pleaser CODA, which is likely to campaign hard for Supporting Actress for Marlee Matlin, and Adapted Screenplay. 

After last year's strong result despite a small slate of Sound of Metal, One Night in Miami and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Amazon have a much weaker slate this year only having Asghar Farhadi's A Hero which premiered at Cannes to positive reviews but has many citing it as an International Feature only player. They also have Aaron Sorkin's Being the Ricardos which is officially confirmed for 2021 but has no release date, and stars Javier Bardem and Nicole Kidman as the stars of the beloved TV show I Love Lucy and who could score acting nominations in a competitive season along with a Screenplay nomination. 

Sony also have a small slate with Pedro Almodovar's Parallel Mothers which is a strong nominee for International Feature and could score Penelope Cruz an Actress nomination and the Denzel Washington directed A Journal for Jordan which stars Michael B. Jordan, who's still in the hunt for his first Actor nomination. 

Lastly, smaller studios Bleecker Street and Neon have some of the most buzzed about films of this years awards season. Bleecker Street have the Sundance favourite and powerful gun violence drama Mass which stars the heavily praised ensemble of Jason Isaacs, Ann Dowd, Martha Plimpton and Reed Birney, all of whom are in contention for Supporting nominations. Neon, on the other hand, have the other big film of Sundance, Flee, a rotoscope animated documentary about a refugee, which some believe could be the first documentary ever nominated for Picture. They also have Pablo Lorrain's universally acclaimed Spencer starring Kristen Stewart as Diana Spencer, in a performance many have already declared the winner of Best Actress. The film is likely to score the same nominations as Lorrain's Jackie in Actress, Score, Costume Design, plus extra nominations in Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Director and Picture.

And that is it! A very broad assessment of this year's awards potentials from large to small, many noms to just a few, but with this many quality films in the hunt, get excited for a fantastic and very competitive awards race!