MY FINAL 2020 OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

 

And so here we are. The day has come. The hour is nearby. Oscar nominations drop tonight at 11:15pm AEST (Sydney). From August last year, I’ve been prognosticating, theorising and needlessly spending my time obsessing over hypotheticals and potential nominees. And more so than previous years, it’s been a fascinating experience. Frontrunners relocated to the 2021-22 Oscar season, larger films failed to land, smaller films steadily rose, and an elongated awards season meant that certain films peaked earlier, others peaked later, and some failed to peak at all. Add to that a new BAFTA voting system, irregular release strategies (looking at you Warner Bros. and Sony Pictures Classics) and the insanity of the precursor Supporting Actress race and it’s certainly been a wild ride. So where do I stand come Oscar nomination day. Read on below to find out:

 

Best Picture

Nomadland is the clear frontrunner having swept precursors not only in Picture, but also Director, Screenplay, Cinematography etc. and so it’s locked in for a nomination. The next 4: The Trial of the Chicago 7, Promising Young Woman, Minari, and Mank, are also practically locked having scored key nominations, amidst glowing critical buzz and strong odds in other categories. Minari especially is peaking at just the right time and Mank looks set to have the highest tally of nominations from this year’s offerings. Next slots 6, 7, & 8 I have Judas and the Black Messiah, One Night In Miami, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Again strong odds in other categories mixed with solid precursor performance likely secure their nominations, with Judas also seemingly peaking at the right time. The Best Picture line-up shifts every year from 8-10 nominees and so my last two choices are my most vulnerable. Sound of Metal has steadily ‘drummed’ up lots of notice and strong showing in Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing and Sound should likely carry it to a Best Picture nomination. Lastly, there’s The Father, which has a lot pointing towards it garnering a nomination with Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Editing. However, whilst it nabbed Best Picture nominations at both the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, its late release, weaker showing, and key precursor misses mean that it may miss out (mirroring last year’s The Two Popes, also starring Hopkins). If we do end up with 10 and The Father isn’t there, look out for recent BAFTA nominee The Mauritanian, or Critics’ Choice nominees Da 5 Bloods, or News of the World but I personally wouldn’t count on them. ….Or there’s Golden Globe winner, and PGA nominee Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (yes I’m using its full ridiculously long title and tou can’t stop me) which with its WGA nomination and Bakalova love could insanely make the Best Picture lineup. (Also if Soul somehow beats all odds and makes it in, I’ll scream with joy)

 

1.       Nomadland

2.      The Trial of the Chicago 7

3.      Promising Young Woman

4.      Minari

5.      Mank

6.      Judas and the Black Messiah

7.      One Night in Miami...

8.     Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

9.      Sound of Metal

10.  The Father

Alternatives: Da 5 Bloods; Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan

 

Best Director

I’m expecting the AMPAS lineup to mirror the DGA lineup, especially with Minari peaking at the perfect time. However, Regina King could also slide in here for One Night in Miami... but the recent DGA and BAFTA misses may point against that. However, AMPAS also have a history of recognising foreign language films here and may mirror the BAFTAs and nominate Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round just as they did in 2018 when they nominated Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War.

 

1.       Chloe Zhao-Nomadland

2.      Lee Isaac Chung-Minari

3.      David Fincher-Mank

4.      Emerald Fennell-Promising Young Woman

5.      Aaron Sorkin-The Trial of the Chicago 7

Alternatives: Regina King – One Night in Miami…; Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round

 

Best Actor

Having won posthumously both the Globe and the Critics’ Choice, Chadwick Boseman seems locked for an Oscar nomination as a recognition of not just his work here, but also his life, cut short far too soon. Hopkins, Ahmed, and Oldman all seem pretty secure, whilst Yeun again is benefiting from Minari’s perfect peaked timing and SAG love, likely knocking out critical favourite Delroy Lindo for Da 5 Bloods who missed SAG, Globes and BAFTA. Again, look out for Another Round here, with Mads Mikkelsen hot off a BAFTA nomination, or fellow BAFTA nominees Tahar Rahim for The Mauritanian who is likely to benefit from co-star Jodie Foster’s Supporting Actress campaign.

 

1.       Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2.      Anthony Hopkins-The Father

3.      Riz Ahmed-Sound of Metal

4.      Gary Oldman-Mank

5.      Steven Yeun-Minari

Alternatives: Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round; Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

 

Best Actress

One of the more competitive races this year, the Best Actress statue has currently been split between Andra Day and Carey Mulligan, winning the Globe and the Critics’ Choice respectively, however neither can win the BAFTA, and only Mulligan made the SAG lineup. Whilst Davis and Mulligan missed the BAFTA, they are still strong locks from other precursors. McDormand has secured nominations at all 4 precursors and with Nomadland sweeping is secure for a nomination and could take the BAFTA & SAG on the road to her 3^rd Oscar. Kirby also has hit all 4 precursors, but the film’s lacklustre showing this season may cause her to be this years major snub (ala 2016’s Amy Adams for Arrival snub). Lastly, Andra Day’s surprise Globe win likely secures her that fifth slot, but either her or Kirby could get bumped for SAG nominee Amy Adams for Hillbilly Elegy which would be controversial to say the least, or perhaps we get a surprise nomination of Yeri Han for Minari. Honestly that fifth spot could even go to outsider candidates like Golden Globe winner Rosamund Pike for I Care A Lot. (which also recently garnered an ACE nomination pointing to industry support), or Critics Choice nominees Zendaya for Malcolm & Marie, and Sidney Flanigan for Never Rarely Sometimes Always or someone else entirely like industry legend Sophia Loren for The Life Ahead.

 

1.       Frances McDormand-Nomadland

2.      Viola Davis-Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

3.      Carey Mulligan-Promising Young Woman

4.      Vanessa Kirby-Pieces of a Woman

5.      Andra Day-The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Alternatives: Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy; Rosamund Pike – I Care A Lot.

 

Best Supporting Actor

What started this season as an overcrowded bustling field, has somewhat thinned in recent weeks. Despite the late release of Judas and the Black Messiah, Daniel Kaluuya has won both the Globe and the Critics’ Choice, and been nominated for the BAFTA and SAG, emerging as the frontrunner for the Oscar. The ensemble casts of Da 5 Bloods, The Trial of the Chicago 7 & One Night in Miami… all seem to have settled on their sole representatives, with Chadwick Boseman, Sacha Baron Cohen and Leslie Odom, Jr. respectively. Cohen’s 2020 was great and despite missing the BAFTA I can’t see him missing the Oscar. Boseman’s untimely death and leading status in Best Actor, mean his Supporting Actor campaign is strong. However, it’s a smaller role, and voters may feel that a lone Best Actor nomination is enough to tribute the actor. Leslie Odom, Jr. having hit all 4 precursors, along with his Original Song campaign and solid 2020 on the whole seems locked. He also had one of the higher tallies of critic group wins prior to Kaluuya’s campaign. The only actor that has them all beat tally wise, is Paul Raci in Sound of Metal, and his recent BAFTA nomination along with the film peaking at the right time hopefully means he deservedly will make the Oscar lineup. Similarly, the adorable Alan S. Kim, fresh of his Critics’ Choice win and speech for Best Young Performer and a BAFTA nom, combined with Minari also peaking at the perfect time bodes well for the little champion. Despite a strong early showing for Bill Murray in On the Rocks, his campaign seems to have evaporated, whilst the weirdness of Jared Leto receiving both a Globe and SAG nomination for The Little Things may just be an irregularity (but also could cause him to slimely slip his way into the lineup)

 

1.       Daniel Kaluuya-Judas and the Black Messiah

2.      Leslie Odom, Jr.-One Night in Miami...

3.      Sacha Baron Cohen-The Trial of the Chicago 7

4.      Alan S. Kim-Minari

5.      Paul Raci-Sound of Metal

Alternatives: Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods; Jared Leto – The Little Things

 

Best Supporting Actress

*INHALES* Welllllllllll…………………. There are 9 solid nominees battling for 5 slots and honestly none of the 9 feels like a guarantee. If anyone tells you they know who’s getting nominated, they are wrong, and if anyone does correctly call this, then it’s only by God’s providence/blind luck. Technically, Youn and Bakalova are the categories frontrunners based on overall awards tallies. Bakalova has scored nominations at the 4 precursors but was nominated in lead for the Globes and then lost what was assumed to be a slam dunk. It’s a debut performance in a comedy, which is not exactly the Academy’s cup of tea. Then there’s Youn who has the most critics wins, and Minari is peaking at the right time, but the Academy’s abysmal record at nominating Asian actors doesn’t bode well. That being said, both campaigns have peaked at the perfect time in such a crescendo that I’m going with my gut and calling they’ll both receive nominations. Then there’s the original perceived frontrunners, Olivia Colman for The Father and Amanda Seyfried for Mank, whom many thought would be battling it out at the precursors. However, Seyfried missed SAG, and both of them missed BAFTA. Either of them could be snubbed but I’m going to say they both make the lineup. Seyfried was expected to win the Globe, but lost to surprise usurper Jodie Foster for The Mauritanian, who despite also missing the BAFTA, is in a film that did receive other major nominations and being an Academy favourite she’s taking my fifth slot. But legitimately all five of these women could miss! 7-time nominee Glenn Close is still in the hunt with Hillbilly Elegy, having made the Globes, SAG and Critics’ Choice, but her film’s much maligned existence and BAFTA snub mean I’m going to say she misses here. Another beloved actress, is Ellen Burstyn who was earlier in the season a presumed lock for a nomination for Pieces of a Woman, but her lack of SAG, Globe and BAFTA means she’s not as strong as once assumed. News of the World’s Helena Zengel did garner both SAG and Globe nominations, and the Academy has a far better track record at nominating young female performances (e.g. Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit, Anna Paquin for The Piano, Quvenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild etc.) but again, the film’s campaign seems to have fizzled. The opposite could be said of Judas and the Black Messiah’s campaign and Dominique Fishback’s recent BAFTA nomination could lead to her breaking into the Oscar lineup instead.

 

1.       Yuh-jung Youn-Minari

2.      Maria Bakalova-Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan

3.      Olivia Colman-The Father

4.      Amanda Seyfried-Mank

5.      Jodie Foster-The Mauritanian

Alternatives: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy; Helena Zengel – News of the World

 

Best Original Screenplay

It seems to be a two-horse race between Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman. Again, Minari and Mank look set to have two of the highest nomination tallies and have done well with precursors. That fifth spot seems like it could go to Judas and the Black Messiah, but Sound of Metal could also easily snag the nomination here. Both have WGA but Sound of Metal also has Critics’ Choice and more screenplay notice from the overall season, but both films are peaking currently so either could get in. Also don’t count out Pete Docter for Soul, who’s been nominated here 4 times and could easily be nominated again.

 

1.       The Trial of the Chicago 7

2.      Promising Young Woman

3.      Mank

4.      Minari

5.      Sound of Metal

Alternatives: Judas and the Black Messiah; Soul

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

For much of this year’s season, it’s seemed like the top 4 have all be locked. Nomadland has run away with this awards season and despite missing WGA (it was ineligible), it’s still the frontrunner here. This season has 3 plays turned films, The Father, One Night in Miami…, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom that have all made strong showings in this category, and The Father especially will be looking to land here. That last spot has been highly competitive and there are plenty of potential contenders. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime to Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan, The White Tiger and News of the World all earned WGA nominations and with Borat’s Globe win and strengths in other races, I’m going to give it that fifth spot. However, the fact that Priyanka Chopra Jonas is announcing the awards may point to AMPAS loving The White Tiger and of all the places for News of the World to show up, Adapted Screenplay is one of its better bets. Outside of them, critical favourite I’m Thinking of Ending Things and First Cow have both got very vocal champions hoping they show up here, but a lack of major precursors doesn’t bode well for them. There’s also the recently surging The Mauritanian that hot off a BAFTA nom could emerge here as well.

 

1.       Nomadland

2.      The Father

3.      One Night in Miami...

4.      Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5.      Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime to Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan

Alternatives: The White Tiger; News of the World

 

Best Animated Feature

This is Soul’s award to walk away with. Whilst its Best Picture prospects have dipped, it’s all but guaranteed to win Best Animated Feature. Wolfwalkers is also basically locked in for a nomination. Outside of those 2, Netflix’s Over the Moon is likely to appear here, PIXAR will likely become a first-time dual nominee with Onward and AMPAS’s familiarity with DreamWorks will probably carry The Croods: A New Age into that fifth spot. Over the Moon could get bumped for another Netflix contender however with both The Willoughbys, and A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon possible nominees.

 

1.       Soul

2.      Wolfwalkers

3.      Onward

4.      Over the Moon

5.      The Croods: A New Age

Alternatives: The Willoughbys; A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

 

Best Original Score

Again, this is Soul’s award to lose. Reznor and Ross are up against themselves as well with their work on Mank looking to secure a nomination. Whilst the two won for their collaboration with Fincher on The Social Network, their subsequent compositions for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and Gone Girl failed to garner nominations, but their work on Mank (and the general industry love for the film) looks set to feature in the lineup. Minari’s peak timing should bode well for it here, whilst James Newton Howard is long overdue for recognition and his work on News of the World is fantastic. Lastly, Ludwig Göransson (who won in 2018 for Black Panther) has his work in Tenet up for consideration, but the Tenet campaign has recently suffered some critical blows and may fail to garner as many nominations as many once thought. Academy favourites Alexandre Desplat and Thomas Newman have The Midnight Sky and The Little Things respectively, and with the latter still searching for a win, there’s likely to be loyal voters putting his name on their ballots.

 

1.       Soul - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross & Jon Batiste

2.      Mank - Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross

3.      Minari - Emile Mosseri

4.      News of the World - James Newton Howard

5.      Tenet - Ludwig Göransson

Alternatives: Alexandre Desplat – The Midnight Sky; Thomas Newman – The Little Things

 

Best Original Song

There are a few frequent kinds of nominees in Original Song that bode well for this year’s shortlisted songs: songs by Diane Warren; songs by singers-turned-actors like A Star is Born’s Shallow; songs from documentaries like The Hunting Grounds’ ‘Til It Happens to You; and songs from comedies like The LEGO Movie’s Everything is Awesome. Singer turned actor Leslie Odom, Jr. has Speak Now from One Night in Miami, Diane Warren has Io sì (Seen) from The Life Ahead, comedy songs like Husavik (My Home Town) from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Sage and Wuhan Flu from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime to Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan; and the documentary All In: The Fight for Democracy has the song Turntables.

 

1.       Speak Now - One Night in Miami...

2.      Io sì (Seen) - The Life Ahead

3.      Fight for You - Judas and the Black Messiah

4.      Hear My Voice - The Trial of the Chicago 7

5.      Turntables - All In: The Fight for Democracy

Alternatives: Husavik (My Home Town) – Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Sage; Wuhan Flu – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime to Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan

 

Best Cinematography

Again Nomadland is a lock here and Mank is likely to add another award nomination to its tally. The recent ASC nominees give a massive boost to Phedon Papamichael for The Trial of the Chicago 7 whilst yet again Minari, peak, good vibes etc. Hoyte van Hoytema work on Tenet certainly deserve recognition but the film’s campaign has dwindled recently, and its ASC miss doesn’t bode well. In it’s place we had surprise nominee Cherry from Newton Thomas Siegel, who could also be nominated for Da 5 Bloods. Lastly, there’s Sean Bobbit’s work on Judas and the Black Messiah which could garner a nomination here but as a dark horse don’t count out the black and white foreign language Dear Comrades! which would follow in the steps of other foreign language surprise nominees here like The Grandmaster and Never Look Away.

 

1.       Nomadland

2.      Mank

3.      News of the World

4.      The Trial of the Chicago 7

5.      Minari

Alternatives: Tenet; Dear Comrades!

 

Best Editing

This category tends to mirror the Best Picture frontrunners and as such, Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 lead along with Mank in my fourth slot. Sound of Metal has raked up plenty of Editing notices and is likely to show up here. I’m giving my fourth spot to Promising Young Woman but Minari or The Father could easily slide in as well. Tenet once looked locked in this category, and it still could appear, but don’t count on it.

 

1.       Nomadland

2.      The Trial of the Chicago 7

3.      Sound of Metal

4.      Mank

5.      Promising Young Woman

Alternatives: Minari; The Father

 

Best Sound

This is the first year that the Academy is presenting its new combined sound award and it’ll be interesting to see if they champion more impressive sound work, or more accessible sound work. News of the World has made most sound precursors, whilst Sound of Metal has as well and literally has sound in the title so it better get nominated here, whilst there’s usually one or two BP nominees that also get Sound love so I’m expecting either Mank, Nomadland or The Trial of the Chicago 7 to pop up here. Genre films also tend to do well here, so this is one of Tenet’s better odds, whilst Greyhound (having missed the VFX shortlist) is looking for a lone nom here. Other genre films like The Midnight Sky and Birds Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) could appear here. Lastly, I’d love to see Soul receive recognition here, and the sound branch has previously recognised PIXAR and other animated films for their sound work.

1.       News of the World

2.      Sound of Metal

3.      Tenet

4.      Mank

5.      Greyhound

Alternatives: The Midnight Sky; Soul

 

Best Visual Effects

The shortlist removed some perceived frontrunners and has left us with an interesting crop of potential nominees. The impressive practical effects in Tenet have it leading the way, whilst reports from the VFX presentations highlighted the impressive work in The Midnight Sky and Mank. This branch has a tendency to award Disney and after their love of Christopher Robin, I’m expecting a lone nom here for The One and Only Ivan, although Mulan could also make the lineup. The most interesting potential nominee here is Welcome to Chechnya, a documentary that used deepfake VFX to hide the identities of it’s interviewees to protect them which is amazingly awesome! Lastly, there’s Birds of Prey of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) which despite little to no campaigning from Warner Bros. has performed well with guilds, signalling strong industry love which could impact here, whilst Soul making the shortlist is awesome, and the response to its presentation was glowing, which could lead it to being the first CGI animated film to be nominated for Best Visual Effects.

 

1.       Tenet

2.      The Midnight Sky

3.      Welcome to Chechnya

4.      Mank

5.      The One and Only Ivan

Alternatives: Soul; Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)

 

Best Production Design

Both this and costume design are Mank’s to lose but there’s certainly strong contenders in each. News of the World is likely to score a few technical nominations and production design is one of its strongest plays. Emma., The Personal History of David Copperfield and Mulan have gorgeous period sets, whilst Tenet and The Midnight Sky have incredibly sci-fi ones. Lastly, The Trial of the Chicago 7 could show up here, being a strong contender in general, and its recent guild love bodes well, but Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami… also have early 20^th century aesthetics that could compete here.

1.       Mank

2.      News of the World

3.      Tenet

4.      Emma.

5.      The Trial of the Chicago 7

Alternatives: Mulan; The Midnight Sky

 

Best Costume Design

Again, this is Mank’s award to lose, but Critics’ Choice winner Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is its major competitor. Other strong nominees include Emma. and Mulan, whilst my biggest no guts no glory prediction is that The Glorias shows up here in Best Costume Design, seeing as director Julie Taymor has never had a film not be nominated here, and the costumes are done by multiple-award winner Sandy Powell. Contemporary costume design can struggle here, but both Promising Young Woman and Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) have garnered enough precursor and industry support that they could break in here. There’s also The Personal History of David Copperfield which deservedly should be nominated both here and in Best Production Design, but its weird eligibility and release means it may slip through the cracks.

1.       Mank

2.      Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

3.      Emma.

4.      Mulan

5.      The Glorias

Alternatives: Promising Young Woman; Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)

 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

This is the second year of the expanded lineup and its likely to feature genre work, foreign language films and period pieces, like most years. The extensive work in Pinocchio makes it the frontrunner, whilst one of the only positively reviewed parts of Hillbilly Elegy was its makeup. Mank again should find it easy to score a nomination here, whilst Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom also features some stellar work. Lastly, Emma. has gorgeous hairstyling and should round out the pack. The branch’s love of superhero films however could lead to Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) making the lineup, especially after Suicide Squad’s win in 2016. Lastly, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey made many of the Oscar shortlists and of all of them, this is its strongest bet.

1.       Pinocchio

2.      Hillbilly Elegy

3.      Mank

4.      Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5.      Emma.

Alternatives: Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn); Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

 

The rest of my nomination predictions are based primarily on picking previous nominees at precursors or what’s showing up in other peoples predictions…

Best Foreign Language Film

1.       Another Round

2.      Quo Vadis, Aida?

3.      La Llorona

4.      Collective

5.      Two of Us

 

Best Documentary

1.       Time

2.      Collective

3.      Dick Johnson Is Dead

4.      Welcome to Chechnya

5.      Boys State

 

Best Documentary Short

1.       A Love Song for Latasha

2.      Colette

3.      Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa

4.      Hunger Ward

5.      Do Not Split

 

Best Live Action Short

1.       The Letter Room

2.      The Human Voice

3.      Two Distant Strangers

4.      The Present

5.      Da Yie

 

Best Animated Short

1.       If Anything Happens I Love You

2.      Out

3.      Burrow

4.      Kapemahu

5.      Opera