MY FINAL 2020 OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS
And so here we are. The day has come. The hour is nearby. Oscar
nominations drop tonight at 11:15pm AEST (Sydney). From August last year, I’ve
been prognosticating, theorising and needlessly spending my time obsessing over
hypotheticals and potential nominees. And more so than previous years, it’s
been a fascinating experience. Frontrunners relocated to the 2021-22 Oscar
season, larger films failed to land, smaller films steadily rose, and an
elongated awards season meant that certain films peaked earlier, others peaked
later, and some failed to peak at all. Add to that a new BAFTA voting system, irregular
release strategies (looking at you Warner Bros. and Sony Pictures Classics) and
the insanity of the precursor Supporting Actress race and it’s certainly been a
wild ride. So where do I stand come Oscar nomination day. Read on below to find
out:
Best Picture
Nomadland is the clear frontrunner having swept precursors not
only in Picture, but also Director, Screenplay, Cinematography etc. and so it’s
locked in for a nomination. The next 4: The Trial of the Chicago 7, Promising
Young Woman, Minari, and Mank, are also practically locked having scored key
nominations, amidst glowing critical buzz and strong odds in other categories.
Minari especially is peaking at just the right time and Mank looks set to have
the highest tally of nominations from this year’s offerings. Next slots 6, 7,
& 8 I have Judas and the Black Messiah, One Night In Miami, and Ma Rainey’s
Black Bottom. Again strong odds in other categories mixed with solid precursor
performance likely secure their nominations, with Judas also seemingly peaking
at the right time. The Best Picture line-up shifts every year from 8-10
nominees and so my last two choices are my most vulnerable. Sound of Metal has steadily
‘drummed’ up lots of notice and strong showing in Actor, Supporting Actor, Original
Screenplay, Editing and Sound should likely carry it to a Best Picture
nomination. Lastly, there’s The Father, which has a lot pointing towards it
garnering a nomination with Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and
Editing. However, whilst it nabbed Best Picture nominations at both the Golden
Globes and the BAFTAs, its late release, weaker showing, and key precursor
misses mean that it may miss out (mirroring last year’s The Two Popes, also
starring Hopkins). If we do end up with 10 and The Father isn’t there, look out
for recent BAFTA nominee The Mauritanian, or Critics’ Choice nominees Da 5
Bloods, or News of the World but I personally wouldn’t count on them. ….Or
there’s Golden Globe winner, and PGA nominee Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery
of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of
Kazakhstan (yes I’m using its full ridiculously long title and tou can’t stop
me) which with its WGA nomination and Bakalova love could insanely make the
Best Picture lineup. (Also if Soul somehow beats all odds and makes it in, I’ll
scream with joy)
1.
Nomadland
2.
The Trial of the Chicago 7
3.
Promising Young Woman
4.
Minari
5.
Mank
6.
Judas and the Black Messiah
7.
One Night in Miami...
8.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
9.
Sound of Metal
10.
The Father
Alternatives: Da 5 Bloods; Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of
Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of
Kazakhstan
Best Director
I’m expecting the AMPAS lineup to mirror the DGA lineup,
especially with Minari peaking at the perfect time. However, Regina King could
also slide in here for One Night in Miami... but the recent DGA and BAFTA
misses may point against that. However, AMPAS also have a history of
recognising foreign language films here and may mirror the BAFTAs and nominate
Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round just as they did in 2018 when they
nominated Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War.
1.
Chloe Zhao-Nomadland
2.
Lee Isaac Chung-Minari
3.
David Fincher-Mank
4.
Emerald Fennell-Promising Young Woman
5.
Aaron Sorkin-The Trial of the Chicago 7
Alternatives: Regina King – One Night in Miami…; Thomas Vinterberg
– Another Round
Best Actor
Having won posthumously both the Globe and the Critics’ Choice,
Chadwick Boseman seems locked for an Oscar nomination as a recognition of not
just his work here, but also his life, cut short far too soon. Hopkins, Ahmed,
and Oldman all seem pretty secure, whilst Yeun again is benefiting from Minari’s
perfect peaked timing and SAG love, likely knocking out critical favourite
Delroy Lindo for Da 5 Bloods who missed SAG, Globes and BAFTA. Again, look out
for Another Round here, with Mads Mikkelsen hot off a BAFTA nomination, or
fellow BAFTA nominees Tahar Rahim for The Mauritanian who is likely to benefit
from co-star Jodie Foster’s Supporting Actress campaign.
1.
Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2.
Anthony Hopkins-The Father
3.
Riz Ahmed-Sound of Metal
4.
Gary Oldman-Mank
5.
Steven Yeun-Minari
Alternatives: Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round; Delroy Lindo – Da 5
Bloods
Best Actress
One of the more competitive races this year, the Best Actress
statue has currently been split between Andra Day and Carey Mulligan, winning
the Globe and the Critics’ Choice respectively, however neither can win the
BAFTA, and only Mulligan made the SAG lineup. Whilst Davis and Mulligan missed
the BAFTA, they are still strong locks from other precursors. McDormand has
secured nominations at all 4 precursors and with Nomadland sweeping is secure
for a nomination and could take the BAFTA & SAG on the road to her 3rd
Oscar. Kirby also has hit all 4 precursors, but the film’s lacklustre showing
this season may cause her to be this years major snub (ala 2016’s Amy Adams for
Arrival snub). Lastly, Andra Day’s surprise Globe win likely secures her that
fifth slot, but either her or Kirby could get bumped for SAG nominee Amy Adams
for Hillbilly Elegy which would be controversial to say the least, or perhaps we
get a surprise nomination of Yeri Han for Minari. Honestly that fifth spot
could even go to outsider candidates like Golden Globe winner Rosamund Pike for
I Care A Lot. (which also recently garnered an ACE nomination pointing to
industry support), or Critics Choice nominees Zendaya for Malcolm & Marie, and
Sidney Flanigan for Never Rarely Sometimes Always or someone else entirely like
industry legend Sophia Loren for The Life Ahead.
1.
Frances McDormand-Nomadland
2.
Viola Davis-Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3.
Carey Mulligan-Promising Young Woman
4.
Vanessa Kirby-Pieces of a Woman
5.
Andra Day-The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Alternatives: Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy; Rosamund Pike – I Care
A Lot.
Best Supporting Actor
What started this season as an overcrowded bustling field, has
somewhat thinned in recent weeks. Despite the late release of Judas and the
Black Messiah, Daniel Kaluuya has won both the Globe and the Critics’ Choice,
and been nominated for the BAFTA and SAG, emerging as the frontrunner for the
Oscar. The ensemble casts of Da 5 Bloods, The Trial of the Chicago 7 & One
Night in Miami… all seem to have settled on their sole representatives, with
Chadwick Boseman, Sacha Baron Cohen and Leslie Odom, Jr. respectively. Cohen’s
2020 was great and despite missing the BAFTA I can’t see him missing the Oscar.
Boseman’s untimely death and leading status in Best Actor, mean his Supporting
Actor campaign is strong. However, it’s a smaller role, and voters may feel
that a lone Best Actor nomination is enough to tribute the actor. Leslie Odom,
Jr. having hit all 4 precursors, along with his Original Song campaign and
solid 2020 on the whole seems locked. He also had one of the higher tallies of
critic group wins prior to Kaluuya’s campaign. The only actor that has them all
beat tally wise, is Paul Raci in Sound of Metal, and his recent BAFTA
nomination along with the film peaking at the right time hopefully means he
deservedly will make the Oscar lineup. Similarly, the adorable Alan S. Kim,
fresh of his Critics’ Choice win and speech for Best Young Performer and a
BAFTA nom, combined with Minari also peaking at the perfect time bodes well for
the little champion. Despite a strong early showing for Bill Murray in On the
Rocks, his campaign seems to have evaporated, whilst the weirdness of Jared
Leto receiving both a Globe and SAG nomination for The Little Things may just
be an irregularity (but also could cause him to slimely slip his way into the
lineup)
1.
Daniel Kaluuya-Judas and the Black Messiah
2.
Leslie Odom, Jr.-One Night in Miami...
3.
Sacha Baron Cohen-The Trial of the Chicago 7
4.
Alan S. Kim-Minari
5.
Paul Raci-Sound of Metal
Alternatives: Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods; Jared Leto – The
Little Things
Best Supporting Actress
*INHALES* Welllllllllll…………………. There are 9 solid nominees
battling for 5 slots and honestly none of the 9 feels like a guarantee. If
anyone tells you they know who’s getting nominated, they are wrong, and if
anyone does correctly call this, then it’s only by God’s providence/blind luck.
Technically, Youn and Bakalova are the categories frontrunners based on overall
awards tallies. Bakalova has scored nominations at the 4 precursors but was
nominated in lead for the Globes and then lost what was assumed to be a slam
dunk. It’s a debut performance in a comedy, which is not exactly the Academy’s
cup of tea. Then there’s Youn who has the most critics wins, and Minari is
peaking at the right time, but the Academy’s abysmal record at nominating Asian
actors doesn’t bode well. That being said, both campaigns have peaked at the
perfect time in such a crescendo that I’m going with my gut and calling they’ll
both receive nominations. Then there’s the original perceived frontrunners,
Olivia Colman for The Father and Amanda Seyfried for Mank, whom many thought
would be battling it out at the precursors. However, Seyfried missed SAG, and both
of them missed BAFTA. Either of them could be snubbed but I’m going to say they
both make the lineup. Seyfried was expected to win the Globe, but lost to
surprise usurper Jodie Foster for The Mauritanian, who despite also missing the
BAFTA, is in a film that did receive other major nominations and being an
Academy favourite she’s taking my fifth slot. But legitimately all five of
these women could miss! 7-time nominee Glenn Close is still in the hunt with
Hillbilly Elegy, having made the Globes, SAG and Critics’ Choice, but her film’s
much maligned existence and BAFTA snub mean I’m going to say she misses here. Another
beloved actress, is Ellen Burstyn who was earlier in the season a presumed lock
for a nomination for Pieces of a Woman, but her lack of SAG, Globe and BAFTA
means she’s not as strong as once assumed. News of the World’s Helena Zengel did
garner both SAG and Globe nominations, and the Academy has a far better track
record at nominating young female performances (e.g. Hailee Steinfeld for True
Grit, Anna Paquin for The Piano, Quvenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern
Wild etc.) but again, the film’s campaign seems to have fizzled. The opposite
could be said of Judas and the Black Messiah’s campaign and Dominique
Fishback’s recent BAFTA nomination could lead to her breaking into the Oscar
lineup instead.
1.
Yuh-jung Youn-Minari
2.
Maria Bakalova-Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious
Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
3.
Olivia Colman-The Father
4.
Amanda Seyfried-Mank
5.
Jodie Foster-The Mauritanian
Alternatives: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy; Helena Zengel – News
of the World
Best Original Screenplay
It seems to be a two-horse race between Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial
of the Chicago 7 and Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman. Again, Minari and
Mank look set to have two of the highest nomination tallies and have done well
with precursors. That fifth spot seems like it could go to Judas and the Black Messiah,
but Sound of Metal could also easily snag the nomination here. Both have WGA but
Sound of Metal also has Critics’ Choice and more screenplay notice from the
overall season, but both films are peaking currently so either could get in.
Also don’t count out Pete Docter for Soul, who’s been nominated here 4 times
and could easily be nominated again.
1.
The Trial of the Chicago 7
2.
Promising Young Woman
3.
Mank
4.
Minari
5.
Sound of Metal
Alternatives: Judas and the Black Messiah; Soul
Best Adapted Screenplay
For much of this year’s season, it’s seemed like the top 4 have
all be locked. Nomadland has run away with this awards season and despite
missing WGA (it was ineligible), it’s still the frontrunner here. This season
has 3 plays turned films, The Father, One Night in Miami…, and Ma Rainey’s
Black Bottom that have all made strong showings in this category, and The
Father especially will be looking to land here. That last spot has been highly
competitive and there are plenty of potential contenders. Borat Subsequent
Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime to Make Benefit Once
Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan, The White Tiger and News of the World all earned
WGA nominations and with Borat’s Globe win and strengths in other races, I’m
going to give it that fifth spot. However, the fact that Priyanka Chopra Jonas
is announcing the awards may point to AMPAS loving The White Tiger and of all
the places for News of the World to show up, Adapted Screenplay is one of its
better bets. Outside of them, critical favourite I’m Thinking of Ending Things
and First Cow have both got very vocal champions hoping they show up here, but
a lack of major precursors doesn’t bode well for them. There’s also the
recently surging The Mauritanian that hot off a BAFTA nom could emerge here as
well.
1.
Nomadland
2.
The Father
3.
One Night in Miami...
4.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
5.
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to
American Regime to Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Alternatives: The White Tiger; News of the World
Best Animated Feature
This is Soul’s award to walk away with. Whilst its Best Picture
prospects have dipped, it’s all but guaranteed to win Best Animated Feature.
Wolfwalkers is also basically locked in for a nomination. Outside of those 2,
Netflix’s Over the Moon is likely to appear here, PIXAR will likely become a
first-time dual nominee with Onward and AMPAS’s familiarity with DreamWorks
will probably carry The Croods: A New Age into that fifth spot. Over the Moon
could get bumped for another Netflix contender however with both The
Willoughbys, and A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon possible nominees.
1.
Soul
2.
Wolfwalkers
3.
Onward
4.
Over the Moon
5.
The Croods: A New Age
Alternatives: The Willoughbys; A Shaun the Sheep Movie:
Farmageddon
Best Original Score
Again, this is Soul’s award to lose. Reznor and Ross are up
against themselves as well with their work on Mank looking to secure a
nomination. Whilst the two won for their collaboration with Fincher on The
Social Network, their subsequent compositions for The Girl with the Dragon
Tattoo and Gone Girl failed to garner nominations, but their work on Mank (and
the general industry love for the film) looks set to feature in the lineup.
Minari’s peak timing should bode well for it here, whilst James Newton Howard
is long overdue for recognition and his work on News of the World is fantastic.
Lastly, Ludwig Göransson (who won in 2018 for Black Panther) has his work in Tenet
up for consideration, but the Tenet campaign has recently suffered some
critical blows and may fail to garner as many nominations as many once thought.
Academy favourites Alexandre Desplat and Thomas Newman have The Midnight Sky
and The Little Things respectively, and with the latter still searching for a
win, there’s likely to be loyal voters putting his name on their ballots.
1.
Soul - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross & Jon Batiste
2.
Mank - Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
3.
Minari - Emile Mosseri
4.
News of the World - James Newton Howard
5.
Tenet - Ludwig Göransson
Alternatives: Alexandre Desplat – The Midnight Sky; Thomas Newman
– The Little Things
Best Original Song
There are a few frequent kinds of nominees in Original Song that
bode well for this year’s shortlisted songs: songs by Diane Warren; songs by
singers-turned-actors like A Star is Born’s Shallow; songs from documentaries
like The Hunting Grounds’ ‘Til It Happens to You; and songs from comedies like
The LEGO Movie’s Everything is Awesome. Singer turned actor Leslie Odom, Jr.
has Speak Now from One Night in Miami, Diane Warren has Io sì (Seen) from The
Life Ahead, comedy songs like Husavik (My Home Town) from Eurovision Song
Contest: The Story of Fire Sage and Wuhan Flu from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery
of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime to Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of
Kazakhstan; and the documentary All In: The Fight for Democracy has the song
Turntables.
1.
Speak Now - One Night in Miami...
2.
Io sì (Seen) - The Life Ahead
3.
Fight for You - Judas and the Black Messiah
4.
Hear My Voice - The Trial of the Chicago 7
5.
Turntables - All In: The Fight for Democracy
Alternatives: Husavik (My Home Town) – Eurovision Song Contest:
The Story of Fire Sage; Wuhan Flu – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of
Prodigious Bribe to American Regime to Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of
Kazakhstan
Best Cinematography
Again Nomadland is a lock here and Mank is likely to add another
award nomination to its tally. The recent ASC nominees give a massive boost to
Phedon Papamichael for The Trial of the Chicago 7 whilst yet again Minari,
peak, good vibes etc. Hoyte van Hoytema work on Tenet certainly deserve
recognition but the film’s campaign has dwindled recently, and its ASC miss doesn’t
bode well. In it’s place we had surprise nominee Cherry from Newton Thomas Siegel,
who could also be nominated for Da 5 Bloods. Lastly, there’s Sean Bobbit’s work
on Judas and the Black Messiah which could garner a nomination here but as a dark
horse don’t count out the black and white foreign language Dear Comrades! which
would follow in the steps of other foreign language surprise nominees here like
The Grandmaster and Never Look Away.
1.
Nomadland
2.
Mank
3.
News of the World
4.
The Trial of the Chicago 7
5.
Minari
Alternatives: Tenet; Dear Comrades!
Best Editing
This category tends to mirror the Best Picture frontrunners and as
such, Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 lead along with Mank in my
fourth slot. Sound of Metal has raked up plenty of Editing notices and is likely
to show up here. I’m giving my fourth spot to Promising Young Woman but Minari
or The Father could easily slide in as well. Tenet once looked locked in this
category, and it still could appear, but don’t count on it.
1.
Nomadland
2.
The Trial of the Chicago 7
3.
Sound of Metal
4.
Mank
5.
Promising Young Woman
Alternatives: Minari; The Father
Best Sound
This is the first year that the Academy is presenting its new combined sound award and it’ll be interesting to see if they champion more impressive sound work, or more accessible sound work. News of the World has made most sound precursors, whilst Sound of Metal has as well and literally has sound in the title so it better get nominated here, whilst there’s usually one or two BP nominees that also get Sound love so I’m expecting either Mank, Nomadland or The Trial of the Chicago 7 to pop up here. Genre films also tend to do well here, so this is one of Tenet’s better odds, whilst Greyhound (having missed the VFX shortlist) is looking for a lone nom here. Other genre films like The Midnight Sky and Birds Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) could appear here. Lastly, I’d love to see Soul receive recognition here, and the sound branch has previously recognised PIXAR and other animated films for their sound work.
1.
News of the World
2.
Sound of Metal
3.
Tenet
4.
Mank
5.
Greyhound
Alternatives: The Midnight Sky; Soul
Best Visual Effects
The shortlist removed some perceived frontrunners and has left us
with an interesting crop of potential nominees. The impressive practical
effects in Tenet have it leading the way, whilst reports from the VFX
presentations highlighted the impressive work in The Midnight Sky and Mank. This
branch has a tendency to award Disney and after their love of Christopher
Robin, I’m expecting a lone nom here for The One and Only Ivan, although Mulan
could also make the lineup. The most interesting potential nominee here is
Welcome to Chechnya, a documentary that used deepfake VFX to hide the identities
of it’s interviewees to protect them which is amazingly awesome! Lastly, there’s
Birds of Prey of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) which
despite little to no campaigning from Warner Bros. has performed well with
guilds, signalling strong industry love which could impact here, whilst Soul making
the shortlist is awesome, and the response to its presentation was glowing, which
could lead it to being the first CGI animated film to be nominated for Best
Visual Effects.
1.
Tenet
2.
The Midnight Sky
3.
Welcome to Chechnya
4.
Mank
5.
The One and Only Ivan
Alternatives: Soul; Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous
Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)
Best Production Design
Both this and costume design are Mank’s to lose but there’s certainly
strong contenders in each. News of the World is likely to score a few technical
nominations and production design is one of its strongest plays. Emma., The
Personal History of David Copperfield and Mulan have gorgeous period sets,
whilst Tenet and The Midnight Sky have incredibly sci-fi ones. Lastly, The Trial
of the Chicago 7 could show up here, being a strong contender in general, and its
recent guild love bodes well, but Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in
Miami… also have early 20th century aesthetics that could compete
here.
1.
Mank
2.
News of the World
3.
Tenet
4.
Emma.
5.
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Alternatives: Mulan; The Midnight Sky
Best Costume Design
Again, this is Mank’s award to lose, but Critics’ Choice winner Ma
Rainey’s Black Bottom is its major competitor. Other strong nominees include
Emma. and Mulan, whilst my biggest no guts no glory prediction is that The
Glorias shows up here in Best Costume Design, seeing as director Julie Taymor
has never had a film not be nominated here, and the costumes are done by multiple-award
winner Sandy Powell. Contemporary costume design can struggle here, but both
Promising Young Woman and Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of
One Harley Quinn) have garnered enough precursor and industry support that they
could break in here. There’s also The Personal History of David Copperfield
which deservedly should be nominated both here and in Best Production Design, but
its weird eligibility and release means it may slip through the cracks.
1.
Mank
2.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3.
Emma.
4.
Mulan
5.
The Glorias
Alternatives: Promising Young Woman; Birds of Prey (and the
Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
This is the second year of the expanded lineup and its likely to
feature genre work, foreign language films and period pieces, like most years. The
extensive work in Pinocchio makes it the frontrunner, whilst one of the only
positively reviewed parts of Hillbilly Elegy was its makeup. Mank again should
find it easy to score a nomination here, whilst Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom also
features some stellar work. Lastly, Emma. has gorgeous hairstyling and should
round out the pack. The branch’s love of superhero films however could lead to
Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) making the
lineup, especially after Suicide Squad’s win in 2016. Lastly, Jingle Jangle: A
Christmas Journey made many of the Oscar shortlists and of all of them, this is
its strongest bet.
1.
Pinocchio
2.
Hillbilly Elegy
3.
Mank
4.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
5.
Emma.
Alternatives: Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of
One Harley Quinn); Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
The rest of my nomination predictions are based primarily on picking
previous nominees at precursors or what’s showing up in other peoples predictions…
Best Foreign Language Film
1.
Another Round
2.
Quo Vadis, Aida?
3.
La Llorona
4.
Collective
5.
Two of Us
Best Documentary
1.
Time
2.
Collective
3.
Dick Johnson Is Dead
4.
Welcome to Chechnya
5.
Boys State
Best Documentary Short
1.
A Love Song for Latasha
2.
Colette
3.
Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa
4.
Hunger Ward
5.
Do Not Split
Best Live Action Short
1.
The Letter Room
2.
The Human Voice
3.
Two Distant Strangers
4.
The Present
5.
Da Yie
Best Animated Short
1.
If Anything Happens I Love You
2.
Out
3.
Burrow
4.
Kapemahu
5.
Opera
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