The MovieMike Awards Circuit 2020: Best Picture Predictions JANUARY

It's beginning to look like a battle between Netflix and Cinemas to claim Best Picture, and streaming is going to have half of the line-up

We've officially made it into 2021 but the 2020 awards season rolls on (with extended eligibility for films until Feb 28). Dozens of critics groups have weighed in with their nominees and winners and it will now be interesting to see films like Sam Levinson's Malcolm & Marie and Shaka King's Judas and the Black Messiah attempt to curry favour with the later awards groups having missed the earlier critics group citations. 

Chloe Zhao's Nomadland has dominated both in Best Picture and Best Director, whilst David Fincher's Mank and Aaron Sorkin's The Trial of the Chicago 7 from Netflix have underperformed in comparison with their smaller offerings: Spike Lee's Da 5 Bloods and George C. Wolfe's Ma Rainey's Black Bottom with Da 5 Bloods in particular rising up the ranks. Smaller films like Eliza Hittman's Never Rarely Sometimes Always and Kelly Reichardt's First Cow have done predictably well with critics following in the footsteps of 2017's First Reformed and Eighth Grade etc but it remains to be seen if they will be embraced by the larger industry. There's also Emerald Fennell's Promising Young Woman that's exploded onto the scene with numerous Best Picture wins amongst other Actress and Screenplay accolades. It too will have to try hard to break into the industry awards lest it replicate the results of 2014's Nightcrawler. Lastly, whilst being a no-show in critics groups so far, Paul Greengrass's News of the World feels likely to appeal to the same voters who loved 2019's Ford v Ferrari and so I would not be surprised at all to see it making the Best Picture line-up.

So what are my predictions:

1. Nomadland (Searchlight)

From independent filmmaker Chloe Zhao comes Nomadland, a beautifully intimate journey into middle America following Fern (played by Frances McDormand), a woman in her sixties who, after losing everything in the Great Recession, embarks on a journey through the American West, living as a van-dwelling modern-day nomad. Currently sweeping critics awards, expect Nomadland to be strong dark horse and underdog competitor to Netflix's mainstream contenders, as the little independent film that could.

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

From Aaron Sorkin, the writer behind A Few Good Men, The West Wing, The Social Network and more, comes The Trial of the Chicago 7, a brilliant courtroom drama based on the infamous 1969 trial of seven defendants (played by Sacha Baron Cohen, Eddie Redmayne, Jeremy Strong and more) who were charged by the federal government with conspiracy and more after the countercultural protests that broke out at the 1968 Democratic National Convention. Featuring strong direction, sharp writing and enduringly relevant themes, expect The Trial of the Chicago 7 to remain a strong forerunner in this awards season and potential Best Picture winner with its broader voter appeal.

3. Mank (Netflix)

From David Fincher, director of The Social Network, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Fight Club and more, comes Mank, a sharply crafted voyage into 1930s Hollywood as seen through the eyes of scathing wit and alcoholic screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz (played by Gary Oldman) during his race to finish writing Citizen Kane. With strong praise for its masterful filmmaking and its brilliant evocation of Old Hollywood, don't be surprised if the Academy and other awards bodies go gaga for this ode to cinema.

4. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

From Spike Lee, the Academy Award winning director behind BlacKkKlansman and Do the Right Thing, comes Da 5 Bloods, a journey of four African American veterans (played by Delroy Lindo, Clarke Peters, Norm Lewis & Isiah Whitlock Jr) who battle the forces of man and nature when they return to Vietnam seeking the remains of their fallen squad leader (played by the late Chadwick Boseman) and the gold fortune he helped them hide. After the success of BlacKkKlansman in 2018, Spike Lee looks set to return to the awards circuit and thanks to Netflix's strong awards prospects this season, it's likely Da 5 Bloods will get a wide push alongside which accompanied by a strong critics awards showing bodes well for its Oscar chances. 

5. One Night in Miami... (Amazon)

From Academy Award winning actress turned director Regina King, comes One Night in Miami... based on the stage play of the same night that dramatises the night of Feb. 25, 1964, where, in Miami, Cassius Clay (played by Eli Goree) was joined by Jim Brown (played by Aldis Hodge), Sam Cooke (played by Leslie Odom, Jr.) and Malcom X (played by Kingsley Ben-Adir), to discuss the responsibility of being successful black men during the civil rights movement. With standout reviews for its cast and a stirringly relevant message, expect it to feature strongly in industry awards, even if its been less commonly cited by critics awards.

6. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix)

From acclaimed theatre director George C. Wolfe comes the cinematic adaption of August Wilson's play, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom where tensions and temperatures rise over the course of an afternoon recording session in 1920s Chicago as a band of musicians including ambitious trumpeter Levee (played by the late Chadwick Boseman) who await the legendary "Mother of the Blues," Ma Rainey (played by Viola Davis). With highly praised performances, especially from the late Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom had already soared to great awards success this awards season and is on a solid trajectory to Oscar consideration.

7. Minari (A24)

From independent director Lee Isaac Chung comes Minari, the story of a Korean American family who search for a better life when they move to a small farm in Arkansas, spearheaded by the efforts of the father of the house (played by Steven Yeun). With unanimous acclaim since its premiere at Sundance and strong showings across the critics awards, Minari is the little indie that keeps rising up the ranks, and will likely continue to rise in awards prospects all season.

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

From emerging director Shaka King comes Judas and the Black Messiah, the story of William O'Neal (played by Lakeith Stanfield) who infiltrated the Illinois chapter of the Black Panther Party to gather intelligence on Chairman Fred Hampton (played by Daniel Kaluuya) after being offered a plea deal by the FBI. With unanimous critical acclaim, Judas and the Black Messiah is already quickly emerging as a strong contender despite being unreleased to the public, that upon its wide release will likely get an even greater push toward Oscar glory.

9. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)

From actress & showrunner turned director, Emerald Fennell, comes Promising Young Woman, a dark comedic thriller that follows a young woman named Cassie (played by Carey Mulligan), who traumatized by a tragic event from her past, seeks out vengeance against those who have wronged her. Currently blazing through the critics awards and with wide acclaim, Promising Young Woman is steadily cementing itself as a frontrunner for Best Actress and Original screenplay but also as a dark horse in the Best Picture race.

10. Soul (Disney)

From Pete Docter, the acclaimed director of Inside Out, Up and Monsters, Inc., comes Soul, the story of Joe (voiced by Jaime Foxx), a middle-school band teacher and passionate jazz musician whose life hasn't quite gone the way he expected but when he travels to another realm to help someone find their passion, he soon discovers what it means to have soul. With universal appeal, unanimous praise and a strong contingent sure to campaign it to become the first animated winner of Best Picture, Soul hasn't quite been PIXAR's next major awards juggernaut but it's recent release and strong word of mouth will hopefully keep it in the conversation

Next-in-Line:

The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)

From playwright and novelist Florian Zeller, comes The Father, a devastating emotional journey that follows a father, Anthony (played by Sir Anthony Hopkins) who refuses all assistance from his daughter, Anne (played by Olivia Colman) as he ages, instead trying to make sense of his changing circumstances, which ultimately leads to his questioning of his loved ones, his own mind and even the fabric of his own reality. As a smaller film with a big critical profile, The Father looks set to be one of this years prime independent candidates that's aiming to rake in awards notice across the board but with a slow rollout from Sony Pictures Classics and a late theatrical release, its Best Picture prospects have begun slipping

News of the World (Universal)

From Paul Greengrass, director of The Bourne Supremacy, Captain Phillips and United 93, comes News of the World, a modern western that follows Capt. Jefferson Kyle Kidd (played by Tom Hanks) as he crosses paths with a kidnapped 10-year-old girl (played by newcomer Helena Zengel) and is tasked with returning her to family via a long journey across the harsh and unforgiving plains of Texas that soon turns into a fight for survival as the traveling companions encounter danger at every turn -- both human and natural. Following in the long legacy of frontier-set awards films, don't be surprised if awards bodies take a shine to this Tom Hanks-starring western epic, especially voters who embraced James Mangold's Ford v Ferrari.

Dark Horses:

First Cow (A24)

From acclaimed independent director, Kelly Reichardt comes First Cow, the tale of two travellers (Played by John Magaro and Orion Lee), on the run from a band of vengeful hunters in the 1820s Northwest, dream of striking it rich with a tenuous plan to make their fortune on the frontier relying on the secret use of a landowner's prized dairy cow. With near perfect ratings universally from critics, First Cow certainly has the critical support, but as a smaller film its going to need the help of the awards circuit to gain more visibility, which seems to be the developing case currently, boding well for First Cow's chances as a Best Picture contender.

Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)

From debut director, Darius Marder comes Sound of a Metal, the emotional journey of a heavy-metal drummer (played by Riz Ahmed) who's life is thrown into freefall when he begins to lose his hearing. Heavily praised for its performances and screenplay, Sound of Metal is also beginning to emerge in the Best Picture conversation after a strong showing in critics group awards.

Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)

From emerging director Eliza Hittman, comes Never Rarely Sometimes Always, the story of young Autumn (played by Sidney Flanigan) who faced with an unintended pregnancy and a lack of local support, travels across state lines with her cousin, Skylar (played by Talia Ryder), to New York City on a fraught journey of friendship, bravery and compassion to get an abortion. Preforming strongly with critics groups in Picture, Actress, and Screenplay, the film's smaller nature, lack of big names and taboo themes means it has an uphill battle for Oscar recognition, but the longer nature of this awards season benefits its ability to spread via word-of-mouth.