The MovieMike Awards Circuit 2020: Best Picture Predictions DECEMBER

Sooooo..... Best Picture is like definitely going to Netflix. And Netflix is like definitely going to have like half of the line-up ain't they?

So regional critics groups have begun to present their awards, officially kicking off the awards circuit for the year!

Looking around at the films that have risen up and presented themselves this awards season, Netflix is the clear frontrunner with David Fincher's Mank, Aaron Sorkin's The Trial of the Chicago 7, George C. Wolfe's Ma Rainey's Black Bottom & Spike Lee's Da 5 Bloods amongst other efforts. Apart from the Netflix onslaught, from Amazon we have Regina King's One Night in Miami... and Darius Marder's Sound of Metal and from A24 we have Lee Isaac Chung's Minari and Kelly Reichardt's First Cow. Focus Features have Emerald Fennell's Promising Young Woman while Sony Pictures Classics have Florian Zeller's The Father, and Searchlight have Chloe Zhao's Nomadland. Lastly, Paramount has Lee Daniels' The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Universal has Paul Greengrass's News of the World, Warner Bros. have Shaka King's Judas and the Black Messiah and Disney has Pete Docter's Soul!

And after the first wave of critics groups (Boston, Chicago, New York and Los Angeles) we've seen the expected emergence of independent critical favourites like Nomadland (Searchlight) and First Cow (A24) over larger studio films. We've also had lots of praise for Netflix's seemingly smaller contenders Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and Da 5 Bloods, who've emerged with more praise than Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 but whether or not this upset is continually reflected across the season remains to be seen. The bulk of this season's awards fare are also now widely available via streaming or are about to be released in limited theatrical rollouts. 

So there's actually a lot of contenders and many of them are going to be more and more accessible to audiences than ever. Whilst the pandemic has caused the closure of cinemas worldwide which is devastating, the silver lining is that casual filmgoers can enjoy some top quality films from the comfort of their own homes instead of in the stuffiness of an arthouse cinema that's ages away. 

So what are my predictions:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

From Aaron Sorkin, the writer behind A Few Good Men, The West Wing, The Social Network and more, comes The Trial of the Chicago 7, a brilliant courtroom drama based on the infamous 1969 trial of seven defendants (played by Sacha Baron Cohen, Eddie Redmayne, Jeremy Strong and more) who were charged by the federal government with conspiracy and more after the countercultural protests that broke out at the 1968 Democratic National Convention. Featuring strong direction, sharp writing and enduringly relevant themes, expect The Trial of the Chicago 7 to remain a strong forerunner in this awards season and potential Best Picture winner with its broader voter appeal.

2. Nomadland (Searchlight)

From independent filmmaker Chloe Zhao comes Nomadland, a beautifully intimate journey into middle America following Fern (played by Frances McDormand), a woman in her sixties who, after losing everything in the Great Recession, embarks on a journey through the American West, living as a van-dwelling modern-day nomad. With strong reviews from critics, expect Nomadland to be strong dark horse and underdog competitor to Netflix's mainstream contenders, as the little independent film that could.

3. Mank (Netflix)

From David Fincher, director of The Social Network, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Fight Club and more, comes Mank, a sharply crafted voyage into 1930s Hollywood as seen through the eyes of scathing wit and alcoholic screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz (played by Gary Oldman) during his race to finish writing Citizen Kane. With strong praise for its masterful filmmaking and its brilliant evocation of Old Hollywood, don't be surprised if the Academy and other awards bodies go gaga for this ode to cinema.

4. One Night in Miami... (Amazon)

From Academy Award winning actress turned director Regina King, comes One Night in Miami... based on the stage play of the same night that dramatises the night of Feb. 25, 1964, where, in Miami, Cassius Clay (played by Eli Goree) was joined by Jim Brown (played by Aldis Hodge), Sam Cooke (played by Leslie Odom, Jr.) and Malcom X (played by Kingsley Ben-Adir), to discuss the responsibility of being successful black men during the civil rights movement. With standout reviews for its cast and a stirringly relevant message, it seems destined to stand as one of the strongest contenders across the board this awards season.

5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix)

From acclaimed theatre director George C. Wolfe comes the cinematic adaption of August Wilson's play, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom where tensions and temperatures rise over the course of an afternoon recording session in 1920s Chicago as a band of musicians including ambitious trumpeter Levee (played by the late Chadwick Boseman) who await the legendary "Mother of the Blues," Ma Rainey (played by Viola Davis). With highly praised performances, especially from the late Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom looks set to soar to great awards success this awards season.

6. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)

From playwright and novelist Florian Zeller, comes The Father, a devastating emotional journey that follows a father, Anthony (played by Sir Anthony Hopkins) who refuses all assistance from his daughter, Anne (played by Olivia Colman) as he ages, instead trying to make sense of his changing circumstances, which ultimately leads to his questioning of his loved ones, his own mind and even the fabric of his own reality. As a smaller film with a big critical profile, The Father looks set to be one of this years prime independent candidates that's likely to rake in awards notice across the board.

7. Soul (Disney)

From Pete Docter, the acclaimed director of Inside Out, Up and Monsters, Inc., comes Soul, the story of Joe (voiced by Jaime Foxx), a middle-school band teacher and passionate jazz musician whose life hasn't quite gone the way he expected but when he travels to another realm to help someone find their passion, he soon discovers what it means to have soul. With universal appeal, unanimous praise and a strong contingent sure to campaign it to become the first animated winner of Best Picture, expect Soul to be PIXAR's next major awards juggernaut.

8. Minari (A24)

From independent director Lee Isaac Chung comes Minari, the story of a Korean American family who search for a better life when they move to a small farm in Arkansas, spearheaded by the efforts of the father of the house (played by Steven Yeun). With unanimous acclaim since its premiere at Sundance, Minari is the little indie that keeps rising up the ranks, and will likely continue to rise in awards prospects all season.

9. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

From Spike Lee, the Academy Award winning director behind BlacKkKlansman and Do the Right Thing, comes Da 5 Bloods, a journey of four African American veterans (played by Delroy Lindo, Clarke Peters, Norm Lewis & Isiah Whitlock Jr) who battle the forces of man and nature when they return to Vietnam seeking the remains of their fallen squad leader (played by the late Chadwick Boseman) and the gold fortune he helped them hide. After the success of BlacKkKlansman in 2018, Spike Lee looks set to return to the awards circuit and thanks to Netflix's strong awards prospects this season, it's likely Da 5 Bloods will get a wide push alongside. 

10. News of the World (Universal)

From Paul Greengrass, director of The Bourne Supremacy, Captain Phillips and United 93, comes News of the World, a modern western that follows Capt. Jefferson Kyle Kidd (played by Tom Hanks) as he crosses paths with a kidnapped 10-year-old girl (played by newcomer Helena Zengel) and is tasked with returning her to family via a long journey across the harsh and unforgiving plains of Texas that soon turns into a fight for survival as the traveling companions encounter danger at every turn -- both human and natural. Following in the long legacy of frontier-set awards films, don't be surprised if awards bodies take a shine to this Tom Hanks-starring western epic. 

Unknown Quantities: 

Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

From emerging director Shaka King comes Judas and the Black Messiah, the story of William O'Neal (played by Lakeith Stanfield) who infiltrated the Illinois chapter of the Black Panther Party to gather intelligence on Chairman Fred Hampton (played by Daniel Kaluuya) after being offered a plea deal by the FBI. With strong buzz despite being as of yet unseen by most and with an as of yet undated release, Judas and the Black Messiah continues to be the biggest wild card this awards season, that if released could smash through as a late breaking top contender. 

The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount)

From Lee Daniels, the director behind Precious and The Butler comes The United States vs. Billie Holiday which follows Billie Holiday (played by Andra Day) during her career as she is targeted by the Federal Department of Narcotics with an undercover sting operation led by black Federal Agent Jimmy Fletcher (played by Trevante Rhodes), with whom she had a tumultuous affair. With a late breaking awards release date and strong talent involved, The United States vs. Billie Holiday seems positioned as a wild card that could easily prove one of the seasons best offerings. 

Dark Horses:

Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)

From actress & showrunner turned director, Emerald Fennell, comes Promising Young Woman, a dark comedic thriller that follows a young woman named Cassie (played by Carey Mulligan), who traumatized by a tragic event from her past, seeks out vengeance against those who have wronged her. Currently blazing through the critics awards and with wide acclaim, Promising Young Woman is steadily cementing itself as a frontrunner for Best Actress and Original screenplay but also as a dark horse in the Best Picture race.

First Cow (A24)

From acclaimed independent director, Kelly Reichardt comes First Cow, the tale of two travellers (Played by John Magaro and Orion Lee), on the run from a band of vengeful hunters in the 1820s Northwest, dream of striking it rich with a tenuous plan to make their fortune on the frontier relying on the secret use of a landowner's prized dairy cow. With near perfect ratings universally from critics, First Cow certainly has the critical support, but as a smaller film its going to need the help of the awards circuit to gain more visibility, which seems to be the developing case currently, boding well for First Cow's chances as a Best Picture contender.

Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)

From debut director, Darius Marder comes Sound of a Metal, the emotional journey of a heavy-metal drummer (played by Riz Ahmed) who's life is thrown into freefall when he begins to lose his hearing. Heavily praised for its performances and screenplay, Sound of Metal is also beginning to emerge in the Best Picture conversation after a strong showing in smaller critics groups.