MOVIEMIKE'S NOVEMBER AWARDS PREDICTION UPDATE

Well, November is now almost up, and it’s been a very interesting few weeks on the awards circuit. Studios have revealed category placements, FYC ads have begun appearing in trade publications and online, the Gotham and Independent Spirit film award noms have dropped and films have begun to be released and reacted to by the wider general public. So here’s my late November update as we sit on the cusp of full awards season glory!

BEST PICTURE

After the initial fall festivals set the stage, Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood (Sony), Martin Scorsese’ The Irishman (Netflix) and Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story (Netflix) sit as the 3 major frontrunners all across the board whilst Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite (NEON) continues to garner universal acclaim and looks set to easily leap over the foreign language barrier.

Despite mixed reviews, Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight) remains firmly in the conversation, and its recent North American theatrical release and audience praise has definitely helped and Todd Phillips’ Joker (Warner Bros.) continues to smash the box office and despite some critical division, audience approval should similarly aid its awards run.

Expected crowd pleasers James Mangold’s Ford v Ferrari (20^th Century Fox) and Marielle Heller’s A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony) remain firmly in the conversation whilst Destin Daniel Cretton’s Just Mercy (Warner Bros.) seems to have lost steam for no identifiable reason. Netflix also has Fernando Meirelles’ The Two Popes (Netflix) which has picked up many festival awards and further bolsters the streaming service’s awards prospects.

Lulu Wang’s The Farewell (A24) is currently gaining steam leaving smaller films like Scott Z. Burns’ The Report (Amazon), and Trey Edward Shults’ Waves (A24) to rely more heavily on strong critics’ awards showings to bolster their awards prospects and with Waves missing the Indie Spirit Awards, it’ll probably look to focus it’s campaign on the supporting acting and writing races, that may lead to Best Picture prospects (think 2017’s Darkest Hour or 2014’s The Theory of Everything). The Safdie Brothers’ Uncut Gems (A24) on the other hand landed well at both the Gotham and Spirit awards and may be a dark horse in the awards season.

The recently premiered Melina Matsoukis’ Queen & Slim (Universal) and Clint Eastwood’s Richard Jewell (Warner Bros.) landed well with critics from the AFI Film Festival (where Apple’s The Banker was pulled so it’s in limbo), with the latter seeming to be a late breaking awards smash and then there’s those films debuting directly into theatres like Jay Roach’s Bombshell (Lionsgate), Sam Mendes’ 1917 (Universal), Todd Haynes’ Dark Waters (Focus Features) and Greta Gerwig’s Little Women (Sony), with early critics’ screenings for Bombshell and Little Woman garnering huge buzz, whilst Dark Waters met solid reviews but in a crowded season doesn’t seem to have the steam to push in.

My predictions:

1.      The Irishman (Netflix)

2.      Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood (Sony)

3.      Marriage Story (Netflix)

4.      Parasite (NEON)

5.      Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)

6.      1917 (Universal)

7.      Bombshell (Lionsgate)

8.      A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony)

9.      Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)

10.  Little Women (Sony)

Other Contenders:

11.  Joker (Warner Bros.)

12.  The Two Popes (Netflix)

13.  The Farewell (A24)

14.  Richard Jewell (Warner Bros.)

15.  Waves (A24)

16.  Dark Waters (Focus Features)

BEST DIRECTOR
Not much has really changed on the Best Director front as veteran directors, Martin Scorsese with The Irishman, Quentin Tarantino with Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood and Sam Mendes with 1917 remain firmly in the predicted 5. Noah Baumbach with Marriage Story and Greta Gerwig with Little Women also remain high in consideration, with Baumbach especially looking like practically a lock for a nomination. It also continues to look great for foreign directors with Bong Joon-ho with Parasite almost guaranteed and Pedro Almodóvar with Pain & Glory looking to follow in the footsteps of last year’s foreign language nominees Alfonso Cuaron for ROMA and Pawel Pawlikowski with Cold War. Then there’s Taika Waititi with Jojo Rabbit and Todd Phillips with Joker, who despite more mixed reviews, are aiming to receive recognition for their work. Finally, Marielle Heller remains in the top 10 thanks to the continued praise for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood which is continuing to emerge as a crowd pleaser.

My predictions:

1.      Quentin Tarantino-Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood

2.      Martin Scorsese-The Irishman

3.      Bong Joon-ho-Parasite

4.      Noah Baumbach-Marriage Story

5.      Sam Mendes-1917

Other contenders:

6.      Greta Gerwig-Little Women

7.      Taika Waititi-Jojo Rabbit

8.      Pedro Almodóvar-Pain & Glory

9.      Todd Phillips-Joker

10.  Marielle Heller-A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

BEST ACTOR

Best Actor continues to be an intense race with big players and up and comers all looking to score a spot. Actors forever familiar to the awards race like Joaquin Phoenix in Joker, Robert De Niro with The Irishman, Leonardo DiCaprio with Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood and Christian Bale with Ford v Ferrari, all sit firmly in the race. An actor fresh to the awards circuit, Adam Driver in Marriage Story is looking to score his second Oscar nominations, following being nominated for Best Supporting Actor for BlacKkKlansman in 2018. There are also the highly praised comeback performances from Antonio Banderas in Pain & Glory, Eddie Murphy in Dolemite Is My Name, Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes (WHO’S NEVER BEEN NOMINATED) and Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems. Additionally, there are up and coming actors, Taron Egerton with Rocketman and Paul Walter Hauser who has impressed critics with his performance in Richard Jewell and if buzz is anything to go by, they both very well could be a big contenders in the awards race. 

My predictions:

1.      Adam Driver-Marriage Story

2.      Joaquin Phoenix-Joker

3.      Robert De Niro-The Irishman

4.      Leonardo DiCaprio-Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood

5.      Antonio Banderas-Pain & Glory

Other contenders:

6.      Jonathan Pryce-The Two Popes

7.      Eddie Murphy-Dolemite Is My Name

8.      Taron Egerton-Rocketman

9.      Christian Bale-Ford v Ferrari

10.  Paul Walter Hauser-Richard Jewell

11.  Adam Sandler-Uncut Gems

BEST ACTRESS

Continuing to remain a fairly light field, the top 2 seems locked with strong praise and acclaim for Renee Zellweger in Judy and Scarlett Johansson in Marriage Story practically guaranteeing their nomination. Whilst yet to officially premiere, early buzz from industry screenings for Charlize Theron in Bombshell and Saoirse Ronan in Little Women position them high on the prediction ballot. Despite the film itself failing to meet high expectations, most agreed that Cynthia Erivo in Harriet delivered a strong and impressive performance that carried the film and a nomination for the up and coming actress is bound to happen sooner rather than later. Support is massive for two earlier performances from this year with Awkwafina in The Farewell hoping to be nominated for her great performance whilst Lupita Nyong’o’s performance in Us continuing to remain in the conversation despite the film’s early year release, with FYC ads and screeners signifying a strong awards push. Alfre Woodard received strong praise for her role in Clemency and a prime awards season release date should help the small film gain wider recognition alongside recent nominations at the Gotham and Indie Spirit awards.

My predictions:

1.      Renee Zellweger-Judy

2.      Scarlett Johansson-Marriage Story

3.      Charlize Theron-Bombshell

4.      Saoirse Ronan-Little Women

5.      Cynthia Erivo-Harriet

Other contenders:

6.      Awkwafina-The Farewell

7.      Alfre Woodard-Clemency

8.      Lupita Nyong’o-Us

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Not a huge amount of movement here, as Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood and The Irishman’s Al Pacino look set to duke it out for the statue. The Irishman also has Joe Pesci who’s vying for a nomination and massive praise for both actors could lead to dual nominations, following in the footsteps of Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri in 2017 which received dual noms for Sam Rockwell (who won) and Woody Harrelson. Willem Dafoe with The Lighthouse is looking to score his third Oscar nomination in a row following nominations in 2017 for The Florida Project and 2018 for At Eternity’s Gate as is Sam Rockwell for Richard Jewell following after his win in 2017 for Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri and nomination in 2017 for Vice. Meanwhile Anthony Hopkins is looking at his first Oscar nomination since 1997’s Amistad over 20 years ago following mass praise for his role in The Two Popes. Similarly, Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is looking at his first Oscar nomination since 2001’s Cast Away! (despite coming close in 2008 with Charlie Wilson’s War, 2013 with Saving Mr. Banks, 2014 with Captain Phillips, 2017 with Sully and 2018 with The Post). Jaime Foxx and Sterling K. Brown both received strong praise on the fall festival circuit for their roles in Just Mercy and Waves, respectively, whilst Alan Alda will be looking to score a nomination for the universally acclaimed Marriage Story which seems set for nominations in almost every major categories and as Parasite continues to build momentum, Song Kang-ho’s nomination chances have increased drastically. Despite mixed reviews, Taika Waititi remains in the conversation for his comedic portrayal of Hitler in Jojo Rabbit but strong critical praise for Shia LaBeouf’s in his semi-autobiographical Honey Boy adds another player to the field. There’s the yet to be seen performances from John Lithgow in Bombshell and Timothee Chalamet in Little Women but industry screenings for both have earned high praise.

My predictions:

1.      Brad Pitt-Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood

2.      Al Pacino-The Irishman

3.      Tom Hanks-A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

4.      Anthony Hopkins-The Two Popes

5.      Joe Pesci-The Irishman

Other contenders:

6.      Willem Dafoe-The Lighthouse

7.      Sterling K. Brown-Waves

8.      Song Kang-ho-Parasite

9.      Jaime Foxx-Just Mercy

10.  Shia LaBeouf-Honey Boy

11.  Alan Alda-Marriage Story

12.  Taika Waititi-Jojo Rabbit

13.  Timothee Chalamet-Little Women

14.  John Lithgow-Bombshell

15.  Sam Rockwell-Richard Jewell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Whilst Laura Dern remains the frontrunner for Marriage Story, there’s been an interesting shift in the Supporting Actress race thanks to industry screenings of Bombshell and Little Women which have led to Margot Robbie and Florence Pugh, respectively, to rise up the ranks, with Robbie leaping over herself for Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood and Pugh entering into the top 5. Jennifer Lopez has maintained buzz and firmly situated herself as a strong contender for her performance in Hustlers whilst Zhao Shuzhen’s incredible debut in The Farewell has many pundits placing her on their ballots, and a recent Indie Spirit nom is sure to help. After a strong premiere at the AFI Film Festival, Kathy Bates has been catapulted into the conversation for her performance in Richard Jewell. Meryl Streep remains in the conversation for The Laundromat and Little Women, but with the former having dropped off the awards radar and the latter less likely to push her, Streep’s prospects have definitely begun to slip. Da’Vine Joy Randolph remains in the conversation thanks to continued strong public and industry praise for Dolemite Is My Name, but it’s all up to Netflix and how heavily they push the film due to their other prospects. Finally Maggie Smith with Downton Abbey and Nicole Kidman with Bombshell round out the list, with both looking to benefit from guilds to keep their campaigns going (and a BAFTA nom for Smith seems likely).

My predictions:

1.      Laura Dern-Marriage Story

2.      Jennifer Lopez-Hustlers

3.      Annette Bening-The Report

4.      Margot Robbie-Bombshell

5.      Zhao Shuzhen-The Farewell

Other contenders:

6.      Florence Pugh-Little Women

7.      Margot Robbie-Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood

8.      Scarlett Johansson-Jojo Rabbit

9.      Nicole Kidman-Bombshell

10.  Kathy Bates-Richard Jewell

11.  Da’Vine Joy Randolph-Dolemite is My Name

12.  Maggie Smith-Downton Abbey

13.  Meryl Streep-The Laundromat

14.  Meryl Streep-Little Women

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Best Original Screenplay continues to be a very interesting category populated with a wide array of films. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood sits firmly alongside Marriage Story as frontrunners to win the category whilst smaller independent films Parasite, The Farewell and Pain & Glory are looking to receive recognition here. Original comedic films Knives Out and Booksmart have their strongest awards chances here in Original Screenplay, whilst The Report also has a lot of promise. Big budget films like the yet to be released Bombshell alongside the well-received Ford v Ferrari are also looking for notice here whilst the comedy Dolemite is My Name continues to build its awards prospects, with a screenplay nod seeming fairly possible.
My predictions:

1.      Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood

2.      Marriage Story

3.      Parasite

4.      Bombshell

5.      The Farewell

Other contenders:

6.      Pain & Glory

7.      Knives Out

8.      Booksmart

9.      The Report

10.  Ford v Ferrari

11.  Dolemite is My Name

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Finally, Adapted Screenplay is still a smaller category with The Irishman seeming to have this locked in the bag, but other contenders are still vying for nominations. Despite divisive reviews Jojo Rabbit and Joker both have strong odds to score nominations with their respective screenplays being some of the more praised elements of their films. Strong praise for The Two Popes, alongside audience favourites A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Just Mercy pad out the rest of the contenders whilst Toy Story 4 has decent enough odds to make a screenplay play. Critical and audience hit Hustlers could potentially sneak in here, and a guild nom or two would certainly help whilst the recently premiered Richard Jewell has emerged as  serious awards contender and might make its way into a smaller adapted screenplay field.

My predictions:

1.      The Irishman

2.      Jojo Rabbit

3.      A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

4.      Little Women

5.      The Two Popes

Other contenders:

6.      Joker

7.      Just Mercy

8.      Toy Story 4

9.      Hustlers

10.  Richard Jewell