The Return of The MovieMike Blog and the 2019 Awards Season

So yet again the time has come to resurrect a blog as the awards season begins to materialise.

We’ve had the 3 major fall festivals of Venice, Telluride and Toronto which have helped to prepare and partially set the stage for this year’s awards hopefuls with numerous hits and misses premiering including the likes of Marriage Story, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Just Mercy and Ford v Ferrari and the New York Film Festival premiered The Irishman to gargantuan praise.

Outside of those films there are foreign language releases Parasite and Pain & Glory that are embedded in the wider awards conversation and there are also releases from earlier in the year that are hoping to remain in the conversation like Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood and The Farewell.

There are also still numerous films yet to premiere at festivals like Queen & Slim (set to premiere at the AFI Film Fest on Nov 14) and others which will make their premieres straight into theatres like 1917, Dark Waters and Little Women.

And so the season is beginning to kick into gear so here’s a look into the current rumblings and prospects that awards pundits are beginning to put forward.

BEST PICTURE

When it comes to Best Picture, the major frontrunners appear courtesy of major Hollywood directors whose work is consistently in the awards conversation with every new project. Quentin Tarantino’s penultimate ninth film, Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood, premiered earlier this year at Cannes before bowing into theatres in August, amidst rave reviews. The name Scorsese alone puts The Irishman high on many prediction ballots, but its universal acclaim post its NY premiere keeps it high. Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story has positioned itself at the forefront of many awards conversations across all the major categories and unanimous praise seem to have it locked in for a nomination. Two other films yet to premiere but already confidently present in the awards conversation are Sam Mendes’ 1917 and Greta Gerwig’s Little Women which should both be players in many above and below the line categories bolstering their Best Picture nomination chances. Despite divisive reviews on the festival circuit, Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit seems to have curried enough good favour, having won the People’s Choice Award at Toronto that its Best Picture chances seem high whilst Steven Soderbergh’s The Laundromat is aiming to also remain in the conversation (and divisive reviews didn’t stop Adam McKay’s Vice from being nominated last year so…}. Other contenders include James Mangold’s Ford v Ferrari which premiered at Telluride and Marielle Heller’s A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood which premiered at Toronto, both to great reviews, praise for its actors and strong audience approval which should aid their chances in Best Picture as crowd favourites. Smaller independent films like Scott Z. Burns’ The Report, Lulu Wang’s The Farewell or Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite premiered earlier in the year at Sundance and Cannes respectively and the latter two have both hit theatres, maintaining immense amounts of praise and there’s Trey Edward Shults’ Waves which emerged as one of the most praised debuts during the fall festivals. The biggest wildcard this awards season has been Todd Phillips’ Joker which won the Golden Lion at Venice and played all the festivals to packed crowds and permanent praise, with Joaquin Phoenix’s performance a leading frontrunner to win Best Actor, but it’ll still have to battle genre bias and potential media and public backlash to its content (which is already ruffling feathers). Then there’s numerous films like Fernando Meirelles’ The Two Popes and Destin Daniel Cretton’s Just Mercy who’s positioning as contenders in other categories could edge them into Best Picture nominations, following after films like 2017’s Darkest Hour. Lastly, there’s the unknown quantities like Todd Haynes’ Dark Waters and Jay Roach’s Bombshell which are yet to premiere but the talent involved alone has them on the radar.

My predictions:

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood (Sony)

2.      The Irishman (Netflix)

3.      Marriage Story (Netflix)

4.      Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)

5.      1917 (Universal)

6.      Little Women (Sony)

7.      Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)

8.      A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony)

9.      Parasite (NEON)

10.  Joker (Warner Bros.)

Other Contenders:

11.  The Farewell (A24)

12.  The Two Popes (Netflix)

13.  The Report (Amazon)

14.  Just Mercy (Warner Bros.)

15.  Waves (A24)

16.  Bombshell (Lionsgate)

17.  Dark Waters (Focus Features)

18.  The Laundromat (Netflix)

BEST DIRECTOR

Populated by industry veterans and exciting up and coming talent, the landscape for Best Director is an exciting one filled with diversity. Veteran directors like Martin Scorsese with The Irishman, Quentin Tarantino with Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood, Sam Mendes with 1917 and James Mangold with Ford v Ferrari are all strong contenders for nominations whilst indie darlings Noah Baumbach with Marriage Story and Greta Gerwig with Little Women will be looking to score notice for their films. It’s also a strong year for foreign directors with Bong Joon-ho with Parasite and Pedro Almodóvar with Pain & Glory looking to follow in the footsteps of last year’s foreign language nominees Alfonso Cuaron for ROMA and Pawel Pawlikowski with Cold War. Then there’s Taika Waititi with Jojo Rabbit and Marielle Heller with A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood who’s prior body of work has been building towards eventual academy recognition. Outside of them, there’s the two Todd’s: Haynes with Dark Waters and Phillips with Joker who could both enter the fray and there’s also Asian-American female independent director Lulu Wang with The Farewell who’s nomination would be a win for so many reasons.

My predictions:

1.      Quentin Tarantino-Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood

2.      Martin Scorsese-The Irishman

3.      Noah Baumbach-Marriage Story

4.      Bong Joon-ho-Parasite

5.      Sam Mendes-1917

Other contenders:

6.      Greta Gerwig-Little Women

7.      Taika Waititi-Jojo Rabbit

8.      Marielle Heller-A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

9.      Pedro Almodóvar-Pain & Glory

10.  James Mangold-Ford v Ferrari

11.  Todd Phillips-Joker

12.  Lulu Wang-The Farewell

13.  Todd Haynes-Dark Waters

BEST ACTOR

The Best Actor field is populated with strong powerhouse performances and subtle performances reflecting humanity with Leonardo DiCaprio’s much praised performance in Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood, Robert De Niro’s strong character work in The Irishman, Eddie Murphy’s bold career comeback in Dolemite is My Name and Taron Egerton’s impressive turn as Elton John in Rocketman falling in the former category whilst Adam Driver’s compassionate and human portrayal in Marriage Story, Antonio Banderas’ deeply personal performance in Pain & Glory, Jonathon Pryce’s restrained depiction in The Two Popes and Michael B. Jordan’s balanced approach in Just Mercy falling in the latter with the controversial much buzzed about performance of Joaquin Phoenix in Joker straddling the two. There’s current category uncertainty regarding Christian Bale in Ford v Ferrari, but if he goes lead, his chances seem solid. There is also the highly praised performance of Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems and we are yet to see Ian McKellen in The Good Liar, Mark Ruffalo in Dark Waters or Daniel Kaluuya in Queen & Slim who all could easily enter an already bustling race.

My predictions:

1.      Adam Driver-Marriage Story

2.      Joaquin Phoenix-Joker

3.      Leonardo DiCaprio-Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood

4.      Robert De Niro-The Irishman

5.      Antonio Banderas-Pain & Glory

Other contenders:

6.      Jonathan Pryce-The Two Popes

7.      Eddie Murphy-Dolemite is My Name

8.      Taron Egerton-Rocketman

9.      Christian Bale-Ford v Ferrari

10.  Adam Sandler-Uncut Gems

11.  Michael B. Jordan-Just Mercy

12.  Daniel Kaluuya-Queen & Slim

13.  Mark Ruffalo-Dark Waters

14.  Ian McKellen-The Good Liar

BEST ACTRESS

Currently a lighter field than most categories, some initial early contenders like Natalie Portman in Lucy in the Sky and Kristen Stewart in Seberg met lukewarm reception on the festival circuit seriously dampening their chances. The top 2 seems locked with strong praise and acclaim for Renee Zellweger in Judy and Scarlett Johansson in Marriage Story practically guaranteeing them a nomination. Despite being yet to premiere, early buzz for Saoirse Ronan in Little Women positions her high on the prediction ballot. Despite the film itself failing to meet high expectations, most agreed that Cynthia Erivo in Harriet delivered a strong and impressive performance that carried the film and a nomination for the up and coming actress is bound to happen sooner rather than later. Support is massive for two earlier performances from this year with Awkwafina in The Farewell hoping to be nominated for her great performance and potential nominations here and in other categories would boost the films Best Picture nomination chances whilst Lupita Nyong’o’s performance in Us continuing to remain in the conversation despite the film’s early year release. Alfre Woodard received strong praise for her role in Clemency and a prime awards season release date should help the small film gain wider recognition. Three unknown quantities are Charlize Theron in Bombshell, Helen Mirren in The Good Liar and newcomer Jodie Turner-Smith in Queen & Slim, who all have early buzz based on the talent involved in each of their respective films. Expect to see some smaller unexpected contenders, like Julianne Moore in Gloria Bell (who’s films early release has impacted her presence in the current awards conversation) to begin showing up on the circuit to fill out a currently thin race. [There’s also the unknown quantity of Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers, who’s expected to make a play in Supporting but could be pushed in Lead.]

My predictions:

1.      Renee Zellweger-Judy

2.      Scarlett Johansson-Marriage Story

3.      Saoirse Ronan-Little Women

4.      Cynthia Erivo-Harriet

5.      Awkwafina-The Farewell

Other contenders:

6.      Charlize Theron-Bombshell

7.      Alfre Woodard-Clemency

8.      Lupita Nyong’o-Us

9.      Jodie Turner-Smith-Queen & Slim

10.  Helen Mirren-The Good Liar

11.  Julianne Moore-Gloria Bell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ensemble films provide many of the contenders here with The Irishman’s Al Pacino and Joe Pesci both vying for nominations with massive praise for both actors and Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood looking to play in Supporting with Leo in Lead. Ford v Ferrari provides the strongly praised performance of Tracy Letts with Matt Damon looking to piggy back on the film’s success whilst Christian Bale is currently expected to play in Lead but if he ends up going Supporting his chances are also high. Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse is looking to score his third Oscar nomination in a row following nominations in 2017 for The Florida Project and 2018 for At Eternity’s Gate whilst Anthony Hopkins following mass praise for his role in The Two Popes will be looking at his first Oscar nomination since 1997’s Amistad over 20 years ago. Similarly, Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is looking at his first Oscar nomination since 2001’s Cast Away! (despite coming close in 2008 with Charlie Wilson’s War, 2013 with Saving Mr. Banks, 2014 with Captain Phillips, 2017 with Sully and 2018 with The Post). Jaime Foxx and Sterling K. Brown both received strong praise on the fall festival circuit for their roles in Just Mercy and Waves, respectively, whilst Alan Alda will be looking to score a nomination for the universally acclaimed Marriage Story which seems set for nominations in almost every major categories. Despite mixed reviews, Taika Waititi remains in the conversation for his comedic portrayal of Hitler in Jojo Rabbit, as does Gary Oldman for his flamboyant and extravagant performance in The Laundromat. There’s the yet to be seen performances from John Lithgow in Bombshell and Timothee Chalamet in Little Women which could easily enter the conversation if there films become big awards players.

My predictions:

1.      Brad Pitt-Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood

2.      Tom Hanks-A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

3.      Al Pacino-The Irishman

4.      Willem Dafoe-The Lighthouse

5.      Anthony Hopkins-The Two Popes

Other contenders:

6.      Joe Pesci-The Irishman

7.      Jaime Foxx-Just Mercy

8.      Sterling K. Brown-Waves

9.      Alan Alda-Marriage Story

10.  Taika Waititi-Jojo Rabbit

11.  Gary Oldman-The Laundromat

12.  John Lithgow-Bombshell

13.  Tracy Letts-Ford v Ferrari

14.  Timothee Chalamet-Little Women

15.  Matt Damon-Ford v Ferrari

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Industry veterans like Laura Dern, Annette Bening, Meryl Streep and Maggie Smith dominate this category with all having high odds thanks to their work in Marriage Story, The Report, The Laundromat and Downton Abbey. Margot Robbie’s memorable turn in Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood hopes to follow in Sam Elliot’s A Star is Born nomination footsteps where despite minimal screen time, maximum impact and praise earned a much-deserved nod. Strong praise for Jennifer Lopez’s standout performance in Hustlers has thrust her into the conversation whilst Zhao Shuzhen’s incredible debut in The Farewell has many pundits placing her on their ballots. Ensemble casts provide many of the other contenders in this category with the strong female ensembles in Little Women and Bombshell providing contenders like Florence Pugh and Meryl Streep (again!) from the former and Nicole Kidman and Margot Robbie (again!) in the latter. There’s also Da’Vine Joy Randolph in Dolemite is My Name which continues to build awards buzz around the board.

My predictions:

1.      Laura Dern-Marriage Story

2.      Annette Bening-The Report

3.      Jennifer Lopez-Hustlers

4.      Zhao Shuzhen-The Farewell

5.      Margot Robbie-Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood

Other contenders:

6.      Scarlett Johansson-Jojo Rabbit

7.      Meryl Streep-The Laundromat

8.      Meryl Streep-Little Women

9.      Maggie Smith-Downton Abbey

10.  Florence Pugh-Little Women

11.  Nicole Kidman-Bombshell

12.  Margot Robbie-Bombshell

13.  Da’Vine Joy Randolph-Dolemite is My Name

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

An exciting category that allows less typical awards fare to gain recognition, there’s plenty of strong contenders here. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood sits firmly alongside Marriage Story as frontrunners to win the category whilst smaller independent films Parasite, The Farewell, Pain & Glory and Waves are looking to receive recognition here. Original comedic films Knives Out and Booksmart have their strongest awards chances here in Original Screenplay, whilst The Report also has a lot of promise. Big budget films like the yet to be released 1917 and Bombshell alongside the well-received Ford v Ferrari are also looking for notice here whilst the comedy Dolemite is My Name continues to build its awards prospects, with a screenplay nod seeming fairly possible.
My predictions:

1.      Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood

2.      Marriage Story

3.      Parasite

4.      The Farewell

5.      Pain & Glory

Other contenders:

6.      Knives Out

7.      Booksmart

8.      The Report

9.      1917

10.  Ford v Ferrari

11.  Waves

12.  Dolemite is My Name

13.  Bombshell

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Finally, Adapted Screenplay is also a smaller category with many initial players like The Goldfinch and Motherless Brooklyn having filtered out. The Irishman seems to have this locked in the bag, but other contenders are still vying for nominations. Despite divisive reviews Jojo Rabbit and The Laundromat both have strong odds to score nominations with their respective screenplays being some of the more praised elements of their films. Unseen contenders like Little Women and Dark Waters have enough good buzz that they could easily secure nominations. The ever-divisive Joker could very likely score a nomination here for its screenplay that doesn’t just draw on the DC Comics, but also on Taxi Driver and The King of Comedy. Strong praise for The Two Popes, alongside audience favourites A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Just Mercy pad out the rest of the contenders whilst Toy Story 4 has decent enough odds to make a screenplay play, following in the footsteps of its predecessor 2010's Toy Story 3 adapted screenplay nomination (and PIXAR also has other screenplay noms under their belt, most recently 2015's Inside Out in original screenplay)

My predictions:

1.      The Irishman

2.      Jojo Rabbit

3.      Little Women

4.      A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

5.      Joker

Other contenders:

6.      The Two Popes

7.      Just Mercy

8.      The Laundromat

9.      Dark Waters

10.  Toy Story 4